But Igor and the gang here at Doom think that unlike "most online news readers," people who make use of resources like our own sidebar might just be getting essential vitamins and minerals in their diet that those other guys lack, no matter how good their up-to-five selections are.
But as pay walls go up, sidebars stand down. FT is already first few free, so it's only rarely we can put their stories up now. As that model spreads, our data mining capabilities will fade away and you too can enjoy the benefits of being dependent on a few good sources. The Atlantic asks, "How Will Online Journalism Ever Make Money?" but would it not be better to first ask how they can keep their readers informed?
Maybe it's more efficient to go straight to the WSJ without passing the AJC or the Canton Repository (let alone HousingWire or TheTrumpet) but somehow life would just become a bit less fun, IMHO.
It has been awhile since we've dug into the Las Vegas home sale numbers. Of note this month is that the most interesting number is not a sale statistic at all- it's the number of single family homes that have rented.
The Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors (GLVAR) has only been tracking the number of homes leased since 2006. In January 2006, 1113 homes were rented. [This number only includes homes leased through the MLS.] That number has steadily increased. In February 2010, a record 2102 homes were leased:
Note the difference in trend between the number of homes rented and the number of homes sold. 2390 homes sold in February, up slightly YOY from last year's 2288, but dropping from January's 2608, an unusual trend for this time of year:
Could it be that the thrill of homeownership is cooling off, or are fewer potential buyers qualifying? It might be a combination of both. With more homeowners walking away, people might be thinking twice about walking toward homeownership.
While sales have been headed down, listings are moving up. Only 19,707 homes were listed for sale in December, a level not seen since February 2007. However, listings have risen for the past two months. There were 22,142 homes listed at the end of February. Consequently the 5.8 months supply that we saw in December has increased markedly to a 9.3 months supply in February.
So where are home prices? February's $135,694 is down 12.8% YOY, and 56.9% off of the June 2006 peak of $315,000.
This is one heck of a way to encourage flight-to-safety buys of Treasury Debt
From the first abuses of QSPEs to the latest headlines about 105 repo, the whole lesson of this financial crisis is that the economy is more fragile than we had previously thought and the system just can't stand any more adventures like this.
Doom is pleased to re-post this important article from the mysterious Jesse's café under his generous Creative Commons license.
Although one would doubt that the US would 'go it alone,' one has to question whether or not they would act in support of a pre-emptive strike by Israel on Iranian nuclear facilities.
Although this news piece assumes Iran is the target, other easterly destinations come to mind in the vicinity of Afghanistan.
The implications of such a strike on the world financial and commodity markets is obvious, and bears careful watching. I would doubt the US would circumvent a discussion at the United Nations. Even George W had to at least pay lip service to international support prior to his attack on Iraq.
I remember a few years back poking around some half-finished homes where the builder had gone into bankruptcy. The homes were located in Queen Creek, AZ. The homes were poorly constructed, and weren't being helped by being left out in the weather. Flooring had been warped by the rain, the roof underlayment was faded by the sun and a number of critters had moved in. When I walked in, a bunch of pigeons flew out.
About a year later, another builder bought the homes and finished them off. The walls were filled with bird nests and droppings. Some places were black and damp, but I'm pretty sure the workmen just drywalled over it all. I've always hoped that no one with severe allergies bought those things.
M has found a property that brings the whole critter issue up to a whole new level however. He sent me the listing for the property at 36452 N. 105th Pl., Scottsdale, AZ. [MLS# 4333227] Here's a picture of this 4,759 sq. ft. beauty:
The listing says:
REO, Sold AS-IS, Home is incomplete in the beginning of construction, great for picking your own floor plan and upgrades. Beautiful mountain views, gated community, club house, community pool.
The Realtor comments states however:
[Realtor Remarks: Please see documents tab to submit an offer. Lockbox code XXXX. Buyer to verify all facts and figures. BEWARE OF BOBCAT LIVING IN PROPERTY.] Read the rest of this entry »
The clear and present danger posed by this deranged edifice built on the unstable foundation of subprime mortgages was not foreseen by the chief executives of America’s premier banks. It was not foreseen by government regulators, by Treasury officials or by the Fed. It was foreseen, however, by a handful of investors, who were aghast at the madness they saw on the Street and who used their prescience to make a fortune off the financial system’s calamitous meltdown. … – from Michiko Kakutani's review1 of "The Big Short: Inside the Doomsday Machine", by Michael Lewis
I think Doom and Doomers were pretty much focused on just warning people as the risks become more and more compelling and obvious. So were we also idiots for failing to enrich ourselves in the process?
Hearty Doomish greetings go out to Ian M, his friends in and around UBC's comp sci department and nerds everywhere (hi Admin!) This is your day
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Alas at some point along the way Ian's old man severely lost his way and became … an Arts nerd?
There was the time back on June 16, 2004 when the Chronicle-Herald picked up a stale wire story and I awoke to find …
"Orlando Bloom Named World's Sexiest Actor"
emblazoned all the way across page E1 of my breakfast newspaper. I couldn't stop laughing for a week.
That was followed by a year and a half painstakingly constructing a Spenserian sestina to demonstrate the application to D-chiro-inositol of a radical new strategy for cyclitol specification, but for today perhaps it will be just as well if I limit the fun and games to a pair of ghazals inspired by one of the Gray Code examples in Knuth. They're actually two of the draft sections for a long sequence of celebrations of our neighbourhood catch basins I've been working on titled Empire of Drains.
Pawns
Be my sword you fat French spade, mucking to the prize.
Glow harder, swifter, smaller, oh spark struck in my father's eyes.
I found the willow wands unasked but they'll look nice
on the mantle, fire crackling, skirts rustling; tinkling of father's ice.
Outside, together, raise the picnic table, praise the cross.
How warm it is to shelter and forgather at my father's house.
Who wants to carry a caldron, mince mushrooms, memorize a curse?
Not I, a diamond scepter let me bear on father's horse.
But maybe it's for me when others judge the case.
If I could spell, would it disturb my father's ease?
Let me bear tankards while the children all carouse.
I see his club, there's no one in this awful house.
Locked fast inside the cockpit; see, this finger knows
I need to scream and dive upon my father's house.
Awake pentacle and float above my cloud. You'll rise
to when you rain like shekels, dancing in my father's eyes.
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More Pawns
Despite the love no resting in my mother's arms.
I drained that cup for nation (Mother's) harm.
Burn this stick, I'll show you what I am.
Dentistry accorded with my mother's aims.
Sing out, out! It won't contain, this room.
Dance seven-times-seventy-times around my mother's home.
Ring-scores on glass sparkle in the gloom.
Last night I dreamed of mother, home.
Let them perceive a black sizzling when we come.
And what's for this night's supper mother, ham?
They came for singing, but I'll entertain the dome.
Tap wands, pull bunnies till my mother come.
Break in, the gate, I need to dig that loam.
The brush awaits let burn my mother's umb.
Smart toilet – what coin would operate, what alms?
Brush off this straw, then set me in my mother's arms.
The state's money problems are so bad that lawmakers are getting eviction notices and calls from collection agencies about their offices back home.
At least five state senators say they've piled up so much unpaid rent, sheepish landlords are asking them when the government plans to make good on its bills.
"He said, ‘Ira, I'm sorry,'" said Sen. Ira Silverstein, D-Chicago, recalling a visit from his landlord delivering an eviction notice. "And what am I going to do? I can't argue with the man."
While none of the lawmakers has actually gotten the boot yet, they are getting a taste of the frustratingly slow pace at which the state pays bills as it careens toward a $13 billion budget hole. It's a pain that's magnified exponentially for school districts, drug rehabilitation counselors and businesses awaiting tax refunds.
The recourse to defaulting mortgage borrowers. [slide 12] I think we … and I was brought up to date of some recent changes in Alberta that make it even more uniform across Canada. In this country roughly half the States allow recourse, half bar it, but even in the States where recourse is allowed, it doesn't seem to be pursued very often. And I think we've seen in some of the European countries, and Denmark is one that comes to mind, one of the strengths of the Danish system is, not just recourse, but aggressive pursuit of delinquent borrowers. // And that's what's key. It's not just having recourse, but it's making sure you go after them. And I think to some extent this reflects maybe one cultural difference between Canada and the US. And it is that Canada, at least in terms of housing finance, seems to have more of a creditor orientation whereas the US, given its populist history has long had a much more of a bias towards and tilt towards debtors. And I think where you see this particularly is with regard to recourse. – Bert Ely, a couple of paragraphs below the 1:15:00 point of Sub VI Hotel
When the bubble at The World burst last fall, Europeans fled for their lives, famously leaving the keys right in their luxury cars at the airport parking lot. Could a similar situation be unfolding in slow motion in the American south-west?
It was lucky I spent yesterday finishing up Bert Ely's presentation from Sub VI Hotel, because today twist's old friend Hubble Smith from the LV Review-Journal is lead author on a must read article on strategic default trends in Nevada. NV's a recourse State, but CA isn't. Are former Californians going to have to flee back down Route 15 to escape the consequences of their failed flips? And would those NV judgments be enforceable in CA, creating back-door recourse? The gang at AEI is pretty hot on federally imposed standards for recourse and they're talking NV standards, not CA.
A subsidiary of Goldman Sachs Group filed more than 50 lawsuits against Las Vegas homeowners in one month last year. Some experts say the litigation could signal the beginning of a Wall Street backlash against defaulting borrowers.
[bankruptcy attorney Philip] Goldstein expects short-sellers to face a flood of collection actions in the coming few years. Second-mortgage lenders, especially, are aggressively pursuing borrowers.
It's said you have to kiss a lot of frogs to find your handsome prince. Researching on the web is the same. You have to read a lot of drivel to learn anything of worth.
Because I do wade through so much drivel in the course of a day, something has to be pretty awful for me to take note of it. This "exceptional" piece however, caught my eye. I challenge anyone to figure out the thesis of Tiger Woods Practices in Isleworth FL, Nation's 2nd Worst Housing Market:
The recently scandalous Tiger Woods has finally picked his golf clubs back up. The golfer returned to the playing fields in Florida, in a neighborhood called Isleworth, a luxury golf community outside of his Orlando home. Not a coincidence, the golf course is headed by golf legend Arnold Palmer, who is also hosting Woods' first possible return championship, the Arnold Palmer Invitational.
Tiger took a break from the golf world after his personal life became top news last November. Golfing took a hit because Woods always drew in high revenue and attention, but his absence allowed other golfers to get a taste of victory.
"At this point, we still don't know," stated Scott Wellington to the associated press. "He has until next Friday to commit. But it was a busy day, for sure. We had a lot of calls, a lot of interest and we sold some tickets. It was interesting."
Florida was hit almost as hard as California when the housing market crashed. As of February, Florida had the second highest foreclosure rate in the nation with 54,032 houses under foreclosure. The 2009 fourth quarter negative equity estimates ranged around 47.8 percent of all present mortgages.
Isleworth, is in Orange County, which has faired better than others in Florida, but Orange County is still in sixth place in the state for highest foreclosure numbers. Isleworth represents true Floridian luxury. Membership of the country club is by invitation only. Looks like they haven't rescinded Woods' membership like some of his advertisers have.
My theory is that the original article was only supposed to be about Woods possible return to golf, but some editor said the article wasn't long enough. The reporter was told to add two more paragraphs. With no more information on Woods available, she wrote about the location- and its foreclosure rate. The information lengthened the article, but left her with no discernible thesis. Read the rest of this entry »
Nevada Federal Credit Union has a deal for big savers: Withdraw your money and you'll get a bonus.
The credit union, one of the largest in Nevada, figures that deposits from members who don't have a checking account, mortgage loan or any other products are expensive.
Brad Beal, chief executive officer of Nevada Federal Credit Union, estimates that about 1,600 of Nevada Federal's 85,000 members only use the credit union for savings.
The financial institution typically uses member deposits, including certificates of deposit and money market accounts, to make loans, which typically bear higher rates than deposits.
Beal figures those interest-bearing accounts are a money-losing proposition in Nevada's current depressed economy.
"We don't have any loan demand right now," Beal said.
The credit union is investing in short-term Treasurys and earns about one-quarter of 1 percent on those government securities on average, but it was paying 0.4 percent to customers with savings.
In addition, the credit union expects the National Credit Union Administration to boost deposit insurance premiums by 0.15 percent to 0.4 percent this year.
For each $100 million in deposits, that premium increase will increase Nevada Federal's costs up to $400,000 yearly, Beal said.
While Nevada Federal is well capitalized, reducing deposits also will increase its net worth as a percent of assets. Beal said that is a secondary reason for reducing total deposits.
It's an unusual strategy. Another credit union manager said the strategy makes good sense in the short term but Nevada Federal also may be unable to get the members back again when demand for loans resumes.
Starting Monday, the credit union has cut the variable interest rates on deposits held by members that only save money to zero.
"We're losing money, and they are not making money," Beal said.
The government needs to rethink that Give money to banks and they will make loans strategy. Banks are finding it more profitable to do something else. Read the rest of this entry »
