An article in the Wall Street Journal today highlighted the difficulty of proper pricing in today’s market.  In “The Price is Right- Maybe”  it states: “Now that the market has grown uncertain, homeowners are at more of a loss when deciding what price tag t put on their property.  So in an attempt to attract buyers, some sellers are experimenting with non-traditional strategies.”

On June 12th, I posted the “Sales vs Listings” chart, current as of April. Since I have obtained the May numbers from the Arizona MLS site, I have updated the chart:

Why You Can’t Just Go By The Median Price A look at four week gains in median price values for four Gilbert zip codes gave the following results:

A recent search showed that people were linking to Housingdoom from across the country, and overseas.  Here’s a sample of some of the links:

Reports that existing home sales are down 1.2% year over year somewhat temper yesterdays slight increase in new home sales.

Tired of reading rehashed economic reports? If you want to read the originals and make up your own mind: Census Bureau Economic Indicators

A number of important economic indicators are out this week – New Home Sales, Existing Home Sales, GDP – but by far the Fed and Bernanke’s decision on interest rates are going to be the most analyzed and scrutenized. Rising interest rates cause a "Catch 22" situation when trying to curb inflation.  Higher interest rates makes things more expensive, which helps curve demand.  Unfortunately, inflation is synonymous with rising prices.

Are you upside down in a mortgage? Your ARM has reset?  You don’t feel your realtor was straight with you? Real stories illustrate the seriousness of the current real estate market more than anything else.  I have received a number of stories in other threads, but I thought it would be useful to have a sounding board to put them on. Maybe by sharing your story, you can help keep others from ending up in the same situation.  Hope to hear from you soon. 

Alan Greenspan said " Although a ‘bubble’ in home prices for the nation as a whole does not appear likely, there do appear to be, at a minimum, signs of froth in some local markets where home prices seem to have risen to unsustainable levels." There was a logic to those comments, I thought.  Those markets where prices inflated quickly would be most at risk for deflating quickly.  It seemed that areas of the country that did not suffer from manic buying sprees should be relatively immune to those problems- but now I am wondering.

But Here’s the Real Story Housingdoom.com was featured in today’s Arizona Republic.  (see article)  The article was essentially correct, although I would say it portrays Housingdoom more alarmist than I try to maintain it.  While I do not foresee the collapse of real estate as we know it in a tremendous national tragedy- I think the potential for thousands of individual tragedies is horrific.

According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, foreclosures in the first quarter of 2006 fell slightly from 2005- except for subprime loans.  That looks like it might be a piece of bright news among a lot of bad- but it hints of potential difficulties to come.   The risk of mounting foreclosures for subprime borrows remains high.

I frequently monitor listings in Gilbert, AZ on ZipRealty- watching for increases in listings, price reductions, checking Price/SF, etc.  I noticed today that two of the oldest properties I’ve been watching became the two newest listings I’ve been watching- one didn’t even change the wording on the ad.  This brings the relists I know of up to four, although I haven’t really been monitoring them. For those of us without access to the MLS, it is difficult to track relists.  A spokesman for the MLS in Massachusetts last year gave a rate of 6.5%. (See article) I started suspecting that…
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Americans as a nation have no savings- the rate has been declining in recent years until last year, when it actually went negative. The reason for this decline?  Pundits have put forth a number of reasons, from credit card debt, and excess consumer spending, to a reliance on increasing home equity for savings.  It is likely that all of these are contributing factors. A Wall Street Journal article today by Jonathan Clements gives another reason- it seems that Americans are spending an inordinate amount on housing and transportation.

According to the U.S. Census Bureau; Gilbert, AZ is the nation’s fourth fastest growing city.  (Click here for AZ Republic article.)  Gilbert  grew by 11%/year between July 2004 and July 2005, gaining 17,173 people, and averaging about 1,400 people moving in per month. Gilbert’s explosive growth has been cited as a reason we can’t have a bubble.  The theory is, all these new residents create sufficient demand to keep inventories down.

The stock market rebounded slightly today, comforted, in part, by the slight increase (5%) of housing starts for May.  Some analysts are using this is an indication of a soft landing.  It is far more likely to be indicitive of a crash – here’s why: