BREAK OUT THE POPCORN AND WATCH THIS MOVIE by John McLeod Debt In The Afternoon (2005) starring GSE guru Peter Wallison as THE MATADOR costarring S&P bond analyst Mike DeStefano as THE BULL with special guest Bert Ely as THE PICADOR Kidding aside, the 2 hour 8 minute long February 3, 2005 panel discussion with real title Receivership Powers: What Are They and Should Fannie and Freddie’s Regulator Have Them? remained for several weeks after the event the American Enterprise Institute’s most popular video download. It featured an all-star cast of academics and financial policy analysts. Considering the venue, keep…
Read more…

On June 29, the Arizona Republic asked, "What’s up with the Elevation Chandler project?" In a city bustling with construction, there is one site notable for its silence: Elevation Chandler, just south of Chandler Fashion Center. No construction workers, no trucks, no buzz of saws or slam of air hammers are in evidence. Just a chain-link fence and a high-rise concrete shell. (all emphasis mine)

According to Larry Murphy, President of SalesTraq, in the In Business Las Vegas, "There never was a bubble, and there isn’t a bubble now. We don’t see a bubble in the future." "In Business" describes SalesTraq as monitoring real estate trends. However, on the Salestraq website, the company describes itself as follows: "It’s like an MLS for new homes!"

Housingdoom has not put a lot of emphasis on condominiums in the Phoenix area, so it’s time to look at condo sales in the Valley.  There is a lot to look at.  (Condos, that is. Not sales.) According to the Arizona Real Estate Center, the condominium market has cooled, along with the rest of the Phoenix market: (Condominiums saw) a decrease from 1,470 sales for May 2006 to 1,035 sales for June, which is below last year’s 2,125 sales.  Further, the median price declined slightly from $175,000 in May to $174,700 in June.

If you like original reports without commentary, this is the link to U.S. New Residential Sales statistics. Info is from the U.S. Census Bureau’s New Residential Sales page. Site includes new home sales statistics, press releases, construction price indexes, etc.

Every now and then, I find a straight talking Realtor (Let’s be kind here folks- it’s not necessarily an oxymoron) who describes the world of real estate I live in, instead of properties listed "Somewhere Over the Rainbow." One of these Realtors is Tom Doyle, a Realtor from Naples, FL, who recently wrote an insightful article in his Naples Real Estate Market Report. For virtually the entire article, you could do a "global search and replace" – replacing Phoenix for Naples. Some of the statistics are not the same, but the market sounds remarkably similar. Here’s how he describes the…
Read more…

Housingdoom wants to know what’s on your mind.  Did you read an article you liked?  Is there a topic you think we should cover?  Have a question either we or the readers can answer?  Please post here. Twist

My apologies for all the numbers today.  If you have an ARM (Adjustible Rate Mortgage), or are thinking about using an ARM, hang with me here.  If you don’t do the math now, you could end up in bad financial shape later. ******************** In the Saturday Arizona Republic, Shea Homes had a two page ad in the Home section.  With the numbers a bold 3 1/2" tall, the ad proclaimed, 3.99% 5-Year Fixed Financing.*

Following is a link to the existing home sales report from the NAR.  This report is updated on or about the 25th of each month. http://www.realtor.org/Research.nsf/files/REL0606TS.pdf/$FILE/REL0606TS.pdf

You are walking through a property, the listing agent is pointing out the features.  You think the price is a little high.  The agent says, "Oh no.  I can show you the appraisal on this property- the owner is asking $20,000 under the appraised value!" Are you impressed?  You shouldn’t be. You are thinking about a HELOC, and talking to a loan officer.  You are wondering about your chances, since you figure you owe what the place is worth.  But the loan officer says, "Oh I can get an appraisal for $25,000 over that figure."  Is she doing you a favor?  Don’t…
Read more…

THERE’S EVEN A HERO  by John McLeod, 21Jul06 “A potential financial disaster that could have shaken the housing market was averted because regulators discovered accounting failures at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the new head [James Lockhart] of the agency that oversees the mortgage giants [OFHEO] said Monday [July 10, 2006].” (my emphasis) That was the opening of the widely repeated AP wire story Mortgage Giants Avert Potential Disaster by seasoned GSE reporter Marcy Gordon. Gordon goes on to chronicle how Freddie Mac and then Fannie Mae paid enormous fines ($125m and $400m) and had to fire much of their…
Read more…

"We don’t have a housing bubble here- the economy’s good, lots of people coming in, prices are going up like crazy.  We don’t have an overheated market like San Francisco or Phoenix." You could be hearing that, you could be saying that- I was hearing that kind of talk in San Diego as recently as April.  But remember, bubbles can fly under the radar, undetected, if you don’t know what to look for.

Realtor’s Business Model Does Not Work With Current Technology and Housing Market A lot has been made recently of Realtor’s commissions.  When the housing market was rising, there was room in the price for everyone and the commission wasn’t given a lot of thought.  Now that prices are coming down, the topic is of greater concern.  With so many Americans having so little equity in their homes, how many sellers will not have room for a 6% commission, or even 5%?  How many will turn to FSBO’s, not because it is their preference to sell their own house, but out of necessity?  As people ponder…
Read more…

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, in his second day of testimony, indicated his concern about the housing market, and said the Fed would be watching housing closely.  He addressed such concerns as ARMs- indicating that 20% of morgages held today are ARMs- half of which should have some sort of increase in 2006.

In an article posted in yesterday’s Realtor.com, there was an interesting article, coached in all kinds of "Realtor-Speak." For those of you who may not have your Realtor-to-English translator handy, or aren’t an actual Realtor, I will try and translate some of the highlights. (I’m not a Realtor – but I’ve got my dictionary handy.)