I asked a local realtor to check on the Phoenix area vacancy rate for me, and this was the reply- I’m not elaborating this morning- I believe the realtor covered the subject most succinctly:
OH my *****! 20,414 listings are VACANT!!! 46,338 Total
44%
I had no idea it was that bad!! Any data on what is "normal"?
What are the total # of phoenix homes? Around 1 million? that would be roughly 2%. But that is # vacant, that are for sale…right? I think # vacant for sale is outrageously high. My understanding is that last year’s runup was CA owners looking to invest the equity they had in their CA homes. ASU has a think tank that my brother-in-law spoke to on that topic.
Twist, as I have told you in past posts, the rental market speaks volumes about what is going on in PHX. on backpage.com most of the houses for rent are empty, and are largely at the periphery of the city. I am guessing the owners are waiting for some kind of runup like CA had seen and smehow this year is just a lull. So they need some one to help pay the mortgage in the meanwhile. Also as I have said in the past alot are rent to own. The scary part as I see it is demand for rentals is down and asking rents have been going down on properties that have interested me, for the last 2 months that I have been looking.
what does “oh my ****” mean? Did you actually delete the word, God? HOW SILLY! I mean, why would you do that? Thats taking PC to a reall self-depracating level.
Anyway, 44% sounds like a real shocker!
GOD,
Twist may be Christian and if so, she’s simply adhering to one God’s (the real God…Your use of that handle is a joke – not a funny one!) basic tenants. You should probably be a little more tolerant.
It is my policy to edit all expletives. It saves the “You think this one is OK, but not that one?” debate. I have seen some forums (some stock message boards come to mind) where the message gets lost in the language, once the expletives get flying.
I don’t want to deny people their say, or change their meaning (that’s too PC), but I am sticking to my unabashedly old fashioned policy.
Metroplexual-
No question about the rental thing. Backpage has an amazing number of rentals- it’s hard to gauge numbers trends in an specific area though. I have a couple of other “unofficial” meters that I check as well. One is Realtor.com- for Gilbert, AZ last April, there was only a few rentals listed, now there is 163- and they aren’t the best place to look for rentals. I always look at the rental section of the AZ Republic- Gilbert is filled with “lease purchase” – code word for “I couldn’t sell my house, so I am trying to rent it out.” And this in a city that was listed as one of the top growing in the nation.
Thanks TM-
That too.
Metroplexual-
I was reading your comment to my husband- who got curious. He just counted- about 225 homes were listed for rent YESTERDAY on in PHX metro on Craigslist.
Metroplexual–
I just ran across this $1850/mo. rental listing on Craigslist for Queen Creek:
This Beautiful 3,200 square foot two story home located on a cul-de-sac and home sits on a golf course provides lot’s of room for a family.
4 bedrooms with walk-in closets and three baths. Large Game room, Family room and living room. Separate utility room includes washer and dryer. Spacious kitchen with walk-in pantry, breakfast bar and microwave and double wide refrigerator included. Salt water pebble-tech pool with rock water fall, built in BBQ with fridge. Lot’s of afternoon shade and Beautiful views of the Superstition mountains and golf course. Large 3 car tandem garage perfect for boat and toys. Gardner,pool service, trash, cable, HOA dues included in rent. Home is available to move into now. Please call…
http://phoenix.craigslist.org/apa/190308939.html
Â
Twist
Metroplexual/Twist,
That’s amazing because if this person bought at the peak using (the now typical) nothing, or close to nothing, down then their monthly cash flow on this property is upside down something like $700 per month. That’s gonna hurt a typical household. This is assuming they keep it rented. Doesn’t sound like THAT”S even happening. If household saving statistics are right and this sort of thing is happening in mass, I’d hate to own much stock in banks heavily leveraged in mortgage notes.
TM-
That’s why John McLeod is doing his Monday posts for us on GSEs like Freddie and Fannie. Right now, everyone is focusing on “What is this doing to the value of my house?” However, when Japan’s housing bubble burst, it literally decimated their banking system. When this goes South, people are going to start worrying more about what this is doing to our banks.
“God” or “god” neither one is an expletive. I dont get it!!
(expletive means:
“a curse; profane or obscene expression”)
Anyway, 44% is indeed astounding. My understanding was that many CA “investors” (speculators) were pouring cash into AZ. I kept reading about it, but i thought it was more hype than fact. Apparantly, it was fact. more troubles!
While being the moderator for Housingdoom is notably shy of perks- it does give me the chance to have the final say. I will define an expletive as any word I’M not comfortable putting up on the site. (Given that this isn’t exactly a paying gig, if this is an idiosyncrasy on my part, I hope people will forgive me.)
***********************
It’s hard to get an exact handle on the number of investors in the market- not everyone was honest in their mortgage applications- but estimates range between 30-40%. Given the total vacancies, rentals, listings, etc.- you have to wonder if that number is too conservative.
if that number is too conservative then we are really in for it!!!
If you go into the county records, houses listed on craigslist that have all the signs of preconstruction flippers, they all say owner occupied.
AZgolfer,
That is because they are required to be owner occupied for their loan. Not that anyone checks up on you.