Bernson's Rebounds

At yesterday’s Fannie Mae Investor/Analyst Conference Call, Fannie Chief Economist David Bernson presented a short PDF slide deck The Outlook for the Economy, Housing and Mortgage Markets. Here’s his slide #4.

The striking feature in all three graphs is a forecast (the red lines) of marked deterioration in the next few months, then a screaming turnaround into a positive trend sometime next year. I don’t know what the Fannie prognosticators who run their models call this thrice repeated hockey-stick pattern, but I believe the lay term is miracle.

Doom readers please help me out here. Do the above graphs make any sense?

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4 Comments for this entry

  1. jan-martin feddersen says:
    November 9, 2006 at 12:23 AM

    hello,

    very good pdf. overly optimistic…….

    they expect 3 rate cuts in 2007. this could only happen when the economy is in a recession. the main case for thier “strong housing market” is and has always been the stong economy and the strong jobsmarket.

    this is inconsistent. it would be nice to see the pdf from the year earlier prediction…..

    i´m sure that every calculation they have made was also to optimistic.

  2. MikeC says:
    November 9, 2006 at 2:30 AM

    Twist,
    Agreed that the graphs make no sense.

    I wonder, did they release these kinds of “forecasts” a year ago, about 2006?
    I’m willing to be it’d be a good laugh to see how “accurately” they predicted things a year ago, when everybody and his dog (esp in the media) still believed the market would rise forever.

  3. John M. says:
    November 9, 2006 at 4:55 AM

    Jan-Martin & MikeC -

    The conference call operator announced the Mission Impossible disclaimer at the end: “this webcast will self-destruct in 30 days.” Unless Wayback has last year’s, or someone saved it, we can’t do comparisons.

  4. John Doe says:
    November 9, 2006 at 7:04 PM

    Nope,

    They didnt’ get it right in 2005 either. Way off just 9 months earlier:

    http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid={D3D1A1BD-BBF5-44C9-87EE-8506093F4F73}&siteId=yhoo

    and

    http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?column=Resident+Authority&siteid=yhoo&dist=

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