I love living in Gilbert, AZ- it’s a great community.  Let’s face it though, Gilbert– known as the former "Hay Capital" of the U.S.– hasn’t ever been able to command the prices of say, Paradise Valley.  Nevertheless, in spite of the recent cooling of the housing market, we have a number of sellers here who think their house is going to make them a millionaire- and the odds aren’t looking good. I checked with one of our very accomodating sources, who told us about the million dollar market in Gilbert.  Since 2001, a total of 56 homes have sold in…
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The Safety Net That Never Was – Part XXII On Friday, BusinessWeek did a brief summary [1] of Fannie Mae’s 2006. Stock rose about 23% Filed its first earnings statement since late 2004 Was fined $400 million in May, one of the largest civil penalties ever in an accounting fraud case spent $1 billion to fix its accounting Restated past earnings in December, wiping out $6.3 billion in profit That’s a big deal (company posted "only" $2.13 billion profit in 2005) But … it was less than the expected loss of $10.8 billion   That was about it for the…
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I thought as we are winding up 2006, it would be interesting to check the forecasting ability of real estate’s favorite prognosticator, David Lereah, chief economist of the National Association of Realtors (NAR).  We do have a bit of an advantage, since we’ve got that 20/20 hindsight.  Here’s what this year’s national home sales (seasonally adjusted) looked like: [data from NAR] Every month the NAR issues a press release with the previous month’s sales report.  In this report Lereah gives a sort of a "state of the market" address.  Here for your reading pleasure and RE enlightenment are his comments…
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The Safety Net That Never Was – Part XXI I don’t know how she did it with everything else exploding around Doom Castle yesterday, but Twist picked up on this [1] mildly startling OFHEO press release. Once again, an important Fannie Mae story has been slipped in during a period of slack attention, hidden under a smokescreen of competing RE news.[2] As I write this, neither blog nor MSM has picked up on OFHEO’s announcement. It’s likely that a couple of the usual suspects, perhaps DSNews or Calculated Risk, will mention this. Hopefully they’ll provide some insight. What’s the bottom…
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It’s the last Friday of 2006, and things are winding down here at the virtual office of HousingDoom. We’re packing away the Christmas decorations and breaking out the party hats to celebrate the New Year.  If Lereah is right, the market has bottomed out, and John and I will have to spend 2007 eating crow.  On the off chance though, that it’s Lereah breaking out "101 Easy Crow Recipes" and not us- we’d appreciate your links, comments, suggestions, and words of wisdom for the new year.

Hat tip to L  for what has to be one of the strangest ads I’ve seen in awhile.  The media has been full of stories of homeowners burying statues of St. Joseph in their yards to help home sales.  But now you can skip the muss, fuss, and embarassment of your neighbors catching you at it.  You can buy a VIRTUAL St. Joseph for only $4.99 each! (Bulk discounts for realtors and flippers): In this tight housing market thousands of people have asked for Saint Joseph’s intercession to sell their houses!  *Are you having trouble selling your home?* Are you…
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It didn’t take a crystal ball to know that November sales would be down, prices would be down, and that the National Association of Realtors (NAR) would try and spin the problems away. According to Bloomberg: “It appears we’ve hit bottom,” David Lereah, chief economist of the Realtors’ group, said at a briefing in Washington. “The price drops are necessary to stir sales. It is working.” While sales were up a negligible 0.6% last month, the NAR has long said that the more important number is year-over-year, as the month-over-month does not allow for seasonal variability. It’s a recommendation they…
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It’s close to the end of the month, and I couldn’t help but take a sneak peak at how Phoenix housing will look.  As you might expect- so far the vast majority of homes that started the month with a sale sign- still have the darn thing in the yard.  Here’s the numbers : Sales: December 2006 (first 27 days)        3,989 Sales: December 2005 (first 27 days)        5,394 Sales: November 2006 (first 27 days)        3,978

I probably should have picked "untwist" for a handle, because I seem to spend most of my time trying to unwind the spin. Consequently, I barely knew what to do with myself then when I read this  San Antonio Express News article by Jennifer Hiller entitled "The perfect mortgage?"  After reading articles like "The Zen of Leverage" I was stunned to read in an MSM publication where they actually suggested NOT BUYING MORE HOUSE THAN YOU CAN AFFORD [and by this it is assumed they are referring to "mortgage" not "total price"]: While some people want to buy the most…
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The new home sales report is out, and the pundits are making a show of wiping their brows and breathing a sigh of relief.  AP was reporting: Sales of new homes rose in November while the backlog of unsold homes fell for a fourth straight month, providing hope that the serious slump in housing could be ending. Sales of new single-family homes rose by 3.4 percent last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.047 million units, reflecting solid sales increases in every region of the country except the South, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday. The increase was better…
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On Christmas Day, Twist popped this story [1] onto the sidebar. It’s by Chinese finance professor Sun Lijian. The opening passage may be one of the sanest and most sensible things I’ve read about debt in a long time. "I used to tell this story in the first lecture of my finance class every term. It goes like this An old American lady, who talks with an old Chinese lady in Heaven, boasts that she has long enjoyed living in an apartment purchased with borrowed money. The old Chinese lady seems sad – she spent most of her life saving…
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Back in August John wrote a post entitled "Egregious Quotes Department."  The quote that John felt worthy of our "most egregious" list at that time was: ‘The downside of real estate is better than the downside on just about anything else.’ While we have seen many quotes that were good contenders for our "most egregious" department [virtually any Lereah quote, for example], we haven’t officially added anything to the list since then.  I’ve had one today though that has been a "burr under my saddle" all morning.  Hat tip to L for the link to InHouse Lender and this quote:

As the Twists struggle out from under the wrapping paper, Doom is slowly coming to life again. I’m celebrating Boxing Day in Canada, so don’t expect to see a whole lot from me.

On December 23 in a Denver Post article entitled Builders often key players in high risk game, the Post describes how builder financing seems to be a major culprit in the record number of foreclosures in Colorado: On one Greeley street, seven adjacent new homes have been foreclosed. Across town, dozens of families paid $40,000 to $50,000 too much for a new home, according to an analysis by David Kiekhaefer, a Greeley broker and builder. That neighborhood "is primed for foreclosure," he said. A computer-assisted geographic analysis of Weld and metro-area foreclosures by The Denver Post found many concentrated in…
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It is Christmas morning- and in honor of the season, the staff here at the HousingDoom World Headquarters and Virtual Office have paused to share their Christmas card with you:   Merry Christmas