Comments on: Toll Brothers- When Life Gives You Lemons, Make Kool-aid http://housingdoom.com/2006/12/07/toll-bros-drinking-koolaid/ Fri, 18 May 2012 02:39:21 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v= By: TucsonDoomer http://housingdoom.com/2006/12/07/toll-bros-drinking-koolaid/#comment-2329 TucsonDoomer Fri, 08 Dec 2006 00:09:31 +0000 http://housingdoom.com/2006/12/07/toll-bros-drinking-koolaid/#comment-2329 Most of what I say is anecdotal, that being said; I've heard a lot of grumblings from a few of my custom home builder friends here in Tucson. They are a lot more realistic about the current trends; "It’s going to get a lot worse before it gets better." Many have begun laying people off, and they absolutely cringe doing it around the holidays. A good friend of mine runs a stucco company, and he had to lay off 60% of his crews. In 12 years of business he has never laid anyone off before the holidays. Toll will soon hear a very loud *pop* and that will be the sound of his head coming out of his ***. Then, and only then, will he be able to absorb the harsh reality of the western housing market. Down, Down, Down for the foreseeable future. Most of what I say is anecdotal, that being said; I’ve heard a lot of grumblings from a few of my custom home builder friends here in Tucson. They are a lot more realistic about the current trends; “It’s going to get a lot worse before it gets better.”

Many have begun laying people off, and they absolutely cringe doing it around the holidays. A good friend of mine runs a stucco company, and he had to lay off 60% of his crews. In 12 years of business he has never laid anyone off before the holidays.

Toll will soon hear a very loud *pop* and that will be the sound of his head coming out of his ***. Then, and only then, will he be able to absorb the harsh reality of the western housing market. Down, Down, Down for the foreseeable future.

]]> By: Old Mike http://housingdoom.com/2006/12/07/toll-bros-drinking-koolaid/#comment-2328 Old Mike Thu, 07 Dec 2006 15:44:20 +0000 http://housingdoom.com/2006/12/07/toll-bros-drinking-koolaid/#comment-2328 I am still having trouble with a vision of "dancing on the bottom"! Seems like that would hurt. If they are looking for land, I think Fountain Hills has an auction coming up soon, and prices have been reduced. I am still having trouble with a vision of “dancing on the bottom”! Seems like that would hurt. If they are looking for land, I think Fountain Hills has an auction coming up soon, and prices have been reduced.

]]> By: NVmike http://housingdoom.com/2006/12/07/toll-bros-drinking-koolaid/#comment-2327 NVmike Thu, 07 Dec 2006 15:22:50 +0000 http://housingdoom.com/2006/12/07/toll-bros-drinking-koolaid/#comment-2327 <i>Toll Brothers- When Life Gives You Lemons, Make Kool-aid</i> Best. Headline. Ever. Made me LOL. Toll Brothers- When Life Gives You Lemons, Make Kool-aid

Best. Headline. Ever.

Made me LOL.

]]> By: twist http://housingdoom.com/2006/12/07/toll-bros-drinking-koolaid/#comment-2326 twist Thu, 07 Dec 2006 15:17:30 +0000 http://housingdoom.com/2006/12/07/toll-bros-drinking-koolaid/#comment-2326 Chuck7- It's too bad Toll didn't take a little more time to give sensible answers- he had a bad case blah, blah, blah throughout the conference call. He was especially inarticulate about rating the different markets. It was somewhat reminiscent of Lereah's "But sales are still strong in Alaska!" comment to show the housing market is still humming along. We got more information from Mish than from Toll: <em>Ramsey Su totaled them all up, came up with 612, and noted "That seems to be a lot for a builder who says they do not build specs." Here are the totals by state. AZ 42, CA 42, CO 9, CT 5, DE 7, FL 114, IL 18, MA 9, MD 24, MI 32 MN 3, NC 29, NJ 38, NV 63, NY 13, PA 37, RI 2, SC 12, TX 35, VA 78 612 Ignoring the current cancellation rate, ignoring the spec homes, and assuming the optimistic projection of 7,300 home sales comes in, <b>Toll is still sitting on a 10 year's supply of land with 74,000 lots. That makes his comment to Ivy about buying more land seem more than a bit disingenuous.</b> All things considered, the odds of Toll "dancing on the bottom" seem rather remote.</em> http://www.globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/ Chuck7-

It’s too bad Toll didn’t take a little more time to give sensible answers- he had a bad case blah, blah, blah throughout the conference call. He was especially inarticulate about rating the different markets. It was somewhat reminiscent of Lereah’s “But sales are still strong in Alaska!” comment to show the housing market is still humming along.

We got more information from Mish than from Toll:

Ramsey Su totaled them all up, came up with 612, and noted “That seems to be a lot for a builder who says they do not build specs.” Here are the totals by state.

AZ 42, CA 42, CO 9, CT 5, DE 7, FL 114, IL 18, MA 9, MD 24, MI 32
MN 3, NC 29, NJ 38, NV 63, NY 13, PA 37, RI 2, SC 12, TX 35, VA 78
612

Ignoring the current cancellation rate, ignoring the spec homes, and assuming the optimistic projection of 7,300 home sales comes in, Toll is still sitting on a 10 year’s supply of land with 74,000 lots. That makes his comment to Ivy about buying more land seem more than a bit disingenuous. All things considered, the odds of Toll “dancing on the bottom” seem rather remote.

http://www.globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/

]]> By: John M. http://housingdoom.com/2006/12/07/toll-bros-drinking-koolaid/#comment-2325 John M. Thu, 07 Dec 2006 14:52:43 +0000 http://housingdoom.com/2006/12/07/toll-bros-drinking-koolaid/#comment-2325 chuck7 - I think it's the other way around, but not sure. Fannie kept me up way too late last night. ;) chuck7 -

I think it’s the other way around, but not sure. Fannie kept me up way too late last night. ;)

]]> By: chuck7 http://housingdoom.com/2006/12/07/toll-bros-drinking-koolaid/#comment-2324 chuck7 Thu, 07 Dec 2006 14:25:59 +0000 http://housingdoom.com/2006/12/07/toll-bros-drinking-koolaid/#comment-2324 Toll Brothers was without a doubt the most rude of all companies during the boom. They never had time for anybody, now they have news conferences and have all the time in the world to answer questions, what comes around goes around? Toll Brothers was without a doubt the most rude of all companies during the boom. They never had time for anybody, now they have news conferences and have all the time in the world to answer questions, what comes around goes around?

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