David Lereah, Chief Economist of the National Association of Realtors, (NAR) is at it again. In a press release today, he expressed his boundless optimism for an early recovery:
Existing-home sales are expected to rise gradually in 2007 from current levels, with annual totals comparable to 2006, while new-home sales will continue to slide, according to the latest forecast by the National Association of Realtors(R).
"Roughly three-quarters of the country will experience a sluggish expansion in 2007, while other areas should continue to contract for at least part of the year," he said. "Most of the correction in home prices is behind us, but general gains in value next year will be modest by historical standards."
Notably absent is any evidence for his projections. Lereah throws a lot of numbers around, but does not cite any trends that might substantiate his thesis. In other reports, Lereah has tried to cite anecdotal evidence of strength. (i.e. his "Nardi Gras" presentation, where he insisted that things were still great in Alaska) There must be a shortage of good news.
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