Housing Doom Housing Bubble Blog

Fannie likes to sneak things in under the radar on FOMC days. This Google News search cluster on Fannie Mae has just 5 stories as of 10:15 MST (Phoenix time).

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Thanks to Tucson Doomer, who made me realize that we were past due to look at the housing market in Tucson. According to Paul Olsen, President of the Tucson Association of Realtors (TAR):

The November statistics are encouraging for the Tucson real estate market. We are seeing the beginning of
the normal winter holiday slowdown, however sales are still up. The market today is similar to early 2004
which, if you recall, was a record breaking year for Tucson real estate.

The decline from last month in total sales volume is almost identical to the decline we saw last year from
October to November 2005. The numbers for total sales units follows this trend as well. Average sales price
has inched up from last month, a good sign for sellers.

The median sale price has gone up $6,500 since last month but has decreased only 3.54% from this time
last year. This is good news for buyers.

Sales in Tucson appear less rosy to me.  982 properties sold in Tucson in November, the lowest number of homes to sell since 929 were posted in January of 2004.  Listings have moderated from last month’s 9336 to 9238, however inventory is 66% higher than last year’s levels. There were 2,380 new homes listed in November- more than double the number of homes sold.

Sales vs. listings have been graphed since January 1997.  I’d explain it but, well… take a look: [data from the TAR]

Tucson experienced a reasonably steady rate of growth until 2005, when sales went up and inventory went down.  Builders then overcompensated to meet demand that diminished when the speculation declined.  Here’s what has happened to appreciation:
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