Comments on: Tucson Housing Bubble- Two Graphs Worth a Thousand Words http://housingdoom.com/2006/12/12/tucson-housing-nov-06/ Sat, 11 Feb 2012 07:12:54 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v= By: » Diary of a Declining Housing Market: Tucson - Housing Doom Housing Bubble Blog http://housingdoom.com/2006/12/12/tucson-housing-nov-06/#comment-2495 » Diary of a Declining Housing Market: Tucson - Housing Doom Housing Bubble Blog Thu, 21 Dec 2006 07:10:30 +0000 http://housingdoom.com/2006/12/12/tucson-housing-nov-06/#comment-2495 [...] 5-4-06 Interest rates are still low. Housing prices have dropped. Inventory levels are up. This is turning into a buyers market here in the Tucson real estate market for Country Club homes, golf properties and retirement communities. Builders have more incentives for buyers and the summer months in Tucson are hot, which is the slowest time for real estate. [Not according to the TAR] [...] [...] 5-4-06 Interest rates are still low. Housing prices have dropped. Inventory levels are up. This is turning into a buyers market here in the Tucson real estate market for Country Club homes, golf properties and retirement communities. Builders have more incentives for buyers and the summer months in Tucson are hot, which is the slowest time for real estate. [Not according to the TAR] [...]

]]> By: Old Mike http://housingdoom.com/2006/12/12/tucson-housing-nov-06/#comment-2494 Old Mike Tue, 12 Dec 2006 20:21:16 +0000 http://housingdoom.com/2006/12/12/tucson-housing-nov-06/#comment-2494 That dissent has been consistant since the increases stopped ...perhaps he takes more seriously the statutory charge regarding inflation control than over-all economic concerns. Maybe he remembers the Carter years. Most of the appointed jobs at the Fed are very tough assignments granted to good, highly qualified people. I have not "priced in" a cut in any of my mental calculations for any time soon, but in my case it may just be wishful thinking. Regarding risk premiums, did you see the "spread" between ok and bad credit in one used automobile business discussed in the Az Republic today (9%-20%). Makes you wonder who calculated the tiny sub-prime mortgage risk premiums for the same consumers? Lots of just deserts just in time for the holidays. That dissent has been consistant since the increases stopped …perhaps he takes more seriously the statutory charge regarding inflation control than over-all economic concerns. Maybe he remembers the Carter years. Most of the appointed jobs at the Fed are very tough assignments granted to good, highly qualified people. I have not “priced in” a cut in any of my mental calculations for any time soon, but in my case it may just be wishful thinking. Regarding risk premiums, did you see the “spread” between ok and bad credit in one used automobile business discussed in the Az Republic today (9%-20%). Makes you wonder who calculated the tiny sub-prime mortgage risk premiums for the same consumers? Lots of just deserts just in time for the holidays.

]]> By: twist http://housingdoom.com/2006/12/12/tucson-housing-nov-06/#comment-2493 twist Tue, 12 Dec 2006 19:31:53 +0000 http://housingdoom.com/2006/12/12/tucson-housing-nov-06/#comment-2493 Old Mike- I've had Bloomberg on waiting for the Fed. I've heard some in the REIC say that the Fed is likely to cut rates soon, to stimulate a weakening economy. I noticed that the one dissenting vote was for a .25% increase, and they gave their usual concerns about inflation. If they are considering a cut at all, nothing hinted at it. Old Mike-

I’ve had Bloomberg on waiting for the Fed. I’ve heard some in the REIC say that the Fed is likely to cut rates soon, to stimulate a weakening economy. I noticed that the one dissenting vote was for a .25% increase, and they gave their usual concerns about inflation. If they are considering a cut at all, nothing hinted at it.

]]> By: twist http://housingdoom.com/2006/12/12/tucson-housing-nov-06/#comment-2492 twist Tue, 12 Dec 2006 19:29:33 +0000 http://housingdoom.com/2006/12/12/tucson-housing-nov-06/#comment-2492 Old Mike- Absolutely. There are a couple of factors going here. One is that there are just fewer buyers in the upper range, but there are more sellers who think their house is going to make them a millionaire. The other is the current psychology. When prices are rising, purchasing a million dollar home sounds like a better idea than when prices are going down. I'm seeing fewer $1 million + properties selling in the East Valley, and I'm wondering if concern about investing a lot of money in a depreciating asset has not become a concern. Old Mike-

Absolutely. There are a couple of factors going here. One is that there are just fewer buyers in the upper range, but there are more sellers who think their house is going to make them a millionaire.

The other is the current psychology. When prices are rising, purchasing a million dollar home sounds like a better idea than when prices are going down. I’m seeing fewer $1 million + properties selling in the East Valley, and I’m wondering if concern about investing a lot of money in a depreciating asset has not become a concern.

]]> By: Old Mike http://housingdoom.com/2006/12/12/tucson-housing-nov-06/#comment-2491 Old Mike Tue, 12 Dec 2006 19:17:46 +0000 http://housingdoom.com/2006/12/12/tucson-housing-nov-06/#comment-2491 FYI, cooling in the housing market is now "substantial" according to the Fed., now being touted in MSM as only real change in statement. FYI, cooling in the housing market is now “substantial” according to the Fed., now being touted in MSM as only real change in statement.

]]> By: Old Mike http://housingdoom.com/2006/12/12/tucson-housing-nov-06/#comment-2490 Old Mike Tue, 12 Dec 2006 18:58:09 +0000 http://housingdoom.com/2006/12/12/tucson-housing-nov-06/#comment-2490 Great data! I recently received information from a sound realtor source that sliced the listing data between over $1m and under $1m, finding for Scottsdale over a 17 month supply at the higher prices (with listings up), and something like 7-9 months supply below a million. Looks to me like its increasingly those "millionaires" who are stuck trying to sell the old homestead. Is this consistent with what you are seeing elsewhere? Great data! I recently received information from a sound realtor source that sliced the listing data between over $1m and under $1m, finding for Scottsdale over a 17 month supply at the higher prices (with listings up), and something like 7-9 months supply below a million. Looks to me like its increasingly those “millionaires” who are stuck trying to sell the old homestead. Is this consistent with what you are seeing elsewhere?

]]> By: TucsonDoomer http://housingdoom.com/2006/12/12/tucson-housing-nov-06/#comment-2489 TucsonDoomer Tue, 12 Dec 2006 12:49:55 +0000 http://housingdoom.com/2006/12/12/tucson-housing-nov-06/#comment-2489 Awesome! I need to stew for a bit... Awesome! I need to stew for a bit…

]]> By: jan-martin feddersen http://housingdoom.com/2006/12/12/tucson-housing-nov-06/#comment-2488 jan-martin feddersen Tue, 12 Dec 2006 09:08:41 +0000 http://housingdoom.com/2006/12/12/tucson-housing-nov-06/#comment-2488 fantastic charts! fantastic charts!

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