One week to go, and the shoppers at Doom Castle are in full panic mode.
Please wrap up a nice RE link or two and send them to Igor at the Reply box. We promise to open them before Xmas!
One week to go, and the shoppers at Doom Castle are in full panic mode.
Please wrap up a nice RE link or two and send them to Igor at the Reply box. We promise to open them before Xmas!
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No more bubbles to bail out the housing bubble
/fleckenstein
http://tinyurl.com/tqpso
Performance Notes, Ouija Boards, Bollinger Bands, and Valuations / hussman
full
http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc061218.htm
summary
http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2006/12/pe-equivalent-valuations-hussman.html
THE NEXT ROGUE WAVE
by Jim Puplava
very good!
http://www.financialsense.com/stormwatch/2006/1215.html
In a Merger Wave, a Dangerous Undertow for Stocks
http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2006/12/in-merger-wave-dangerous-undertow-for.html
Five Macroeconomic Myths
economist Ed Prescott “busts” the myth that the US public debt is “high”, and in specific, burdensome to future generations.
and the anti spin from aaron crowne
http://www.autodogmatic.com/index.php/sst?blog=10&p=404&page=1&more=1&c=1&tb=1&pb=1&disp=single#c3522
Realogy Agrees to Buyout By Apollo Management for $6.4 Billion
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aseFA4dTmAoA&refer=home
Five Things You Need to Know: Vanished, Deflation Is Good… Until it Isn’t, Dear Prudence, Sounds Like a Plan… A Very Bad Plan, Who Needs Dollars Anyway
4. Sounds Like a Plan… A Very Bad Plan
More than half of recently surveyed British mortgage brokers said their clients admit to buying property to supplement poor retirement savings, according to the Telegraph.
A lack of confidence in the stock market is fueling increased investment in rental properties despite the fact the income from the properties in many cases fails to cover interest and management costs, the Telegraph said.
Borrowing by so-called “buy-to-let “investors will rise more quickly than borrowing by home owners and will account for 13% of gross lending in 2007 and 14%in 2008, up from 11% in 2006, according to the Council of Mortgage Lenders.
The phrase “buy-to-let” is simply the British vernacular for buying a residential property to lease for a profit and the particular category of mortgage loans used to purchase the property for leasing.
A survey published this week shows eight in 10 mortgage brokers expect to see an increase in buy-to-let lending in 2007 from today’s already record levels.
Claire Burston, at financial consultancy Penrose which commissioned the study, told the Telegraph: “People are becoming increasingly aware of the need to supplement their existing savings prior to retirement and this will result in a boom in the buy-to-let market.”
Meanwhile, two weeks ago UCB Homeloans announced it was relaxing buy-to-let lending criteria.
So, let’s see if we got this right. What we have here is people who haven’t saved enough money for retirement buying property they can’t afford (thanks to relaxed lending standards) and renting the property for less than the cost of carry to other people who apparently can’t afford to buy a home either.
If we hated money this is exactly what we would do to get rid of it.
the rest is also worth reading!
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/index.php?a=11788
Inflation Vanquished ?
anti spin from barry
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2006/12/retail_booming_.html
Jan-Martin (comment #2) -
Hussman seems baffled that the markets can continue being irrational for so long.
Jan-Martin (comment #3) -
(lots of important stuff today)
Letters-of-fire time for Puplava.
Boulder Realtor(tm) stands up and says what everyone else already knows: David Lereah is a clown:
Entire article here: [corrected JM, score two for Boulder RE professionals last Friday!]
“Not My Favorite Clown”, by OSMAN, BoulderRealty blog, December 15, 2006.
Mr. Twist found the good stuff in this [1] Friday article by a Boulder CO based mortgage broker and columnist. The message is that the regulators’ nontraditional guidance is being ignored. There is a slight error in the piece. OFHEO’s letter [2] to F&F requiring them to follow the guidance was actually published on Wednesday, not Thursday.
The quote in [1] is just a teaser. Reading the whole piece is recommended.
———————————–
[1]: “Housing still far from hitting bottom”, by Lou Barnes, Inman / Mortgage101, December 15, 2006.
[2]: Press Release: “OFHEO Directs Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to follow nontraditional mortgage risk guidance”, OFHEO, December 13, 2006.
Twist -
Sounds like might like to contact Mr. Osman Parvez of the Re/Max Silver Fern Team, Boulder CO area. He’s a fan of MISH and looks to be doing research there a bit like yours around Phoenix. NVmike dug out a piece on their research blog about David Lereah (comment 11 above), and the same article is being discussed over at HP.
Adding this find to Mr. Twist’s discovery of the Lou Barnes article, it sounds like there’s some deep thinking going on in Boulder’s RE community. There have been stories about Colorado’s weak regulation causing a spike in foreclosures, so perhaps that’s focusing their minds up there.
Jan-Martin & NVmike & Mr Twist -
Great stuff today, and there hasn’t even been time to look at 6,7,8 yet
After the buyout boom: The bust?
itulip
http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=717
thai´s to control speculation, stocks down 16%!
http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2006/12/thais-to-control-speculation-stocks.html
peter shiff on bulls and bears / fox
on houisng. great video 2-3 minutes
http://www.europac.net/Schiff-Fox-12-16-06_lg.asp
hovnanain faces reality.
details warning!
http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2006/12/hovnanian-faces-reality.html
U.S. Current Account Deficit – Foreign Investors Making It Up On Volume?
by Paul Kasriel
http://www.safehaven.com/article-6542.htm
update on the billings bubble
a must see video
http://www.topoimagery.com/billings/
Jan-Martin -
Finally catch up.
Thanks especially for #20, the Billings video.
Report Reveals 2.2 Million Borrowers Face Foreclosure on Subprime Home Loans
MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease / CR
http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2006/12/mba-mortgage-applications-decrease.html
Rising Inventories and Price Cuts = Bottom of the Housing Recession?
by Paul Kasriel
http://www.safehaven.com/article-6548.htm
uk builder feel the us blues….
George Wimpey down 2.7% after reviewing U.S. land bank
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/george-wimpey-sees-adjusted-pretax/story.aspx?guid=%7BAA82D3B7%2D342F%2D404F%2DBF20%2D6F1434D0703A%7D
U.K. homebuilder George Wimpey said that poor trading conditions in the U.S. market means that it has been reviewing its U.S. land bank and option carrying values, a move that is expected to impact net assets by 2.5% after tax. U.K performance has been strong, the company said, adding that it’s expecting record home completions in 2006. Last year, the company completed 17,021 homes in total. Pretax profit for 2006 is expected to be in line with expectations, prior to U.S. option exit costs and land value provisions, the company said. In the U.K. current market conditions are similar to those experienced throughout 2006 and the company said it believes the outlook for 2007 is stable. It remains difficult to predict the U.S. market outcome for 2007, however the company said that it expects both volumes and margins to be materially below 2006
Riskiest Mortgage Bonds May Fall as Fannie Mae Cuts Purchases
http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2006/12/riskiest-mortgage-bonds-may-fall-as.html
Beware the overpriced debt markets in 2007
full
http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=8459490
my take/summary
http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2006/12/beware-overpriced-debt-markets-in-2007.html
Gussied-Up Land-Flippers?
http://jeffmatthewsisnotmakingthisup.blogspot.com/2006/12/gussied-up-land-flippers.html
World Needs Better “Face of American Capitalism” than Private Equity / itulip
long but very good!
http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=724
Global Rebalance, Consumer Imbalance / us spillover risks / pimco!
summary
http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2006/12/global-rebalance-consumer-imbalance-us.html
or full (warning very long)
http://www.pimco.com/LeftNav/Global+Markets/Global+Macro/2006/GMT+December+2006.htm
Five Things You Need to Know: More PPI, Investment Standards? We Don’t Need No Stinking Investment Standards!, Thai Me Up, Thai Me Down, Relationships, One Has a Theory About This…
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/index.php?a=11815
or just
dow theory
http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2006/12/dow-theory-minyanville.html