Housing Doom

No more bubbles to bail out the housing bubble
/fleckenstein

http://tinyurl.com/tqpso

THE NEXT ROGUE WAVE
by Jim Puplava

very good!

http://www.financialsense.com/stormwatch/2006/1215.html

Five Macroeconomic Myths

economist Ed Prescott “busts” the myth that the US public debt is “high”, and in specific, burdensome to future generations.

and the anti spin from aaron crowne

http://www.autodogmatic.com/index.php/sst?blog=10&p=404&page=1&more=1&c=1&tb=1&pb=1&disp=single#c3522

Five Things You Need to Know: Vanished, Deflation Is Good… Until it Isn’t, Dear Prudence, Sounds Like a Plan… A Very Bad Plan, Who Needs Dollars Anyway

4. Sounds Like a Plan… A Very Bad Plan

More than half of recently surveyed British mortgage brokers said their clients admit to buying property to supplement poor retirement savings, according to the Telegraph.

A lack of confidence in the stock market is fueling increased investment in rental properties despite the fact the income from the properties in many cases fails to cover interest and management costs, the Telegraph said.
Borrowing by so-called “buy-to-let “investors will rise more quickly than borrowing by home owners and will account for 13% of gross lending in 2007 and 14%in 2008, up from 11% in 2006, according to the Council of Mortgage Lenders.
The phrase “buy-to-let” is simply the British vernacular for buying a residential property to lease for a profit and the particular category of mortgage loans used to purchase the property for leasing.
A survey published this week shows eight in 10 mortgage brokers expect to see an increase in buy-to-let lending in 2007 from today’s already record levels.
Claire Burston, at financial consultancy Penrose which commissioned the study, told the Telegraph: “People are becoming increasingly aware of the need to supplement their existing savings prior to retirement and this will result in a boom in the buy-to-let market.”
Meanwhile, two weeks ago UCB Homeloans announced it was relaxing buy-to-let lending criteria.
So, let’s see if we got this right. What we have here is people who haven’t saved enough money for retirement buying property they can’t afford (thanks to relaxed lending standards) and renting the property for less than the cost of carry to other people who apparently can’t afford to buy a home either.
If we hated money this is exactly what we would do to get rid of it.

the rest is also worth reading!

http://www.minyanville.com/articles/index.php?a=11788

Jan-Martin (comment #2) -

Hussman seems baffled that the markets can continue being irrational for so long.

“Again, however, nothing prevents investors from driving the market higher over the short-term so long as Wall Street analysts propagate the same sort of ignorance that they encouraged in the late 1990’s. In any event, further market gains on the hallucination that P/E multiples are ‘reasonable’ will only make the long-term resolution worse.”

Boulder Realtor(tm) stands up and says what everyone else already knows: David Lereah is a clown:

“[Lereah's] widely quoted sound bites sound like they’re written by a PR firm. They’re filled with contradictions and are sloppy and vague. His statements are not an accurate reflection of market conditions and his predictions have little value.”

Entire article here: [corrected JM, score two for Boulder RE professionals last Friday!]

“Not My Favorite Clown”, by OSMAN, BoulderRealty blog, December 15, 2006.

Twist -

Sounds like might like to contact Mr. Osman Parvez of the Re/Max Silver Fern Team, Boulder CO area. He’s a fan of MISH and looks to be doing research there a bit like yours around Phoenix. NVmike dug out a piece on their research blog about David Lereah (comment 11 above), and the same article is being discussed over at HP.

Adding this find to Mr. Twist’s discovery of the Lou Barnes article, it sounds like there’s some deep thinking going on in Boulder’s RE community. There have been stories about Colorado’s weak regulation causing a spike in foreclosures, so perhaps that’s focusing their minds up there.

After the buyout boom: The bust?
itulip

http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=717

peter shiff on bulls and bears / fox

on houisng. great video 2-3 minutes

http://www.europac.net/Schiff-Fox-12-16-06_lg.asp

U.S. Current Account Deficit – Foreign Investors Making It Up On Volume?
by Paul Kasriel

http://www.safehaven.com/article-6542.htm

Jan-Martin -

Finally catch up. Thanks especially for #20, the Billings video.

MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease / CR

http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2006/12/mba-mortgage-applications-decrease.html

uk builder feel the us blues….

George Wimpey down 2.7% after reviewing U.S. land bank

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/george-wimpey-sees-adjusted-pretax/story.aspx?guid=%7BAA82D3B7%2D342F%2D404F%2DBF20%2D6F1434D0703A%7D

U.K. homebuilder George Wimpey said that poor trading conditions in the U.S. market means that it has been reviewing its U.S. land bank and option carrying values, a move that is expected to impact net assets by 2.5% after tax. U.K performance has been strong, the company said, adding that it’s expecting record home completions in 2006. Last year, the company completed 17,021 homes in total. Pretax profit for 2006 is expected to be in line with expectations, prior to U.S. option exit costs and land value provisions, the company said. In the U.K. current market conditions are similar to those experienced throughout 2006 and the company said it believes the outlook for 2007 is stable. It remains difficult to predict the U.S. market outcome for 2007, however the company said that it expects both volumes and margins to be materially below 2006

Beware the overpriced debt markets in 2007

full
http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=8459490

my take/summary
http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2006/12/beware-overpriced-debt-markets-in-2007.html

World Needs Better “Face of American Capitalism” than Private Equity / itulip

long but very good!

http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=724

Five Things You Need to Know: More PPI, Investment Standards? We Don’t Need No Stinking Investment Standards!, Thai Me Up, Thai Me Down, Relationships, One Has a Theory About This…

http://www.minyanville.com/articles/index.php?a=11815

or just

dow theory
http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2006/12/dow-theory-minyanville.html