http://www.minyanville.com/articles/index.php?a=11815

or just

dow theory
http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2006/12/dow-theory-minyanville.html

summary
http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2006/12/global-rebalance-consumer-imbalance-us.html

or full (warning very long)
http://www.pimco.com/LeftNav/Global+Markets/Global+Macro/2006/GMT+December+2006.htm

long but very good!

http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=724

http://jeffmatthewsisnotmakingthisup.blogspot.com/2006/12/gussied-up-land-flippers.html

full
http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=8459490

my take/summary
http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2006/12/beware-overpriced-debt-markets-in-2007.html

http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2006/12/riskiest-mortgage-bonds-may-fall-as.html

George Wimpey down 2.7% after reviewing U.S. land bank

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/george-wimpey-sees-adjusted-pretax/story.aspx?guid=%7BAA82D3B7%2D342F%2D404F%2DBF20%2D6F1434D0703A%7D

U.K. homebuilder George Wimpey said that poor trading conditions in the U.S. market means that it has been reviewing its U.S. land bank and option carrying values, a move that is expected to impact net assets by 2.5% after tax. U.K performance has been strong, the company said, adding that it’s expecting record home completions in 2006. Last year, the company completed 17,021 homes in total. Pretax profit for 2006 is expected to be in line with expectations, prior to U.S. option exit costs and land value provisions, the company said. In the U.K. current market conditions are similar to those experienced throughout 2006 and the company said it believes the outlook for 2007 is stable. It remains difficult to predict the U.S. market outcome for 2007, however the company said that it expects both volumes and margins to be materially below 2006

http://www.safehaven.com/article-6548.htm

http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2006/12/mba-mortgage-applications-decrease.html

Finally catch up. Thanks especially for #20, the Billings video.

a must see video

http://www.topoimagery.com/billings/

http://www.safehaven.com/article-6542.htm

details warning!

http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2006/12/hovnanian-faces-reality.html

on houisng. great video 2-3 minutes

http://www.europac.net/Schiff-Fox-12-16-06_lg.asp

http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2006/12/thais-to-control-speculation-stocks.html

http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=717

Great stuff today, and there hasn’t even been time to look at 6,7,8 yet

Sounds like might like to contact Mr. Osman Parvez of the Re/Max Silver Fern Team, Boulder CO area. He’s a fan of MISH and looks to be doing research there a bit like yours around Phoenix. NVmike dug out a piece on their research blog about David Lereah (comment 11 above), and the same article is being discussed over at HP.

Adding this find to Mr. Twist’s discovery of the Lou Barnes article, it sounds like there’s some deep thinking going on in Boulder’s RE community. There have been stories about Colorado’s weak regulation causing a spike in foreclosures, so perhaps that’s focusing their minds up there.

The quote in [1] is just a teaser. Reading the whole piece is recommended.

———————————–

[1]: “Housing still far from hitting bottom”, by Lou Barnes, Inman / Mortgage101, December 15, 2006.

Back in September, the Fed rounded up every money-lending regulator to issue a “guidance” to banks, S&Ls, credit unions, and Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, ordering them to tighten underwriting and advertising standards for “nontraditional mortgages,” defined as any loan with interest-only or negative-amortization provisions of any kind. In the world of banking, a Fed guidance is a bolt of Jovian lightning — fail to pay attention, and you will fry.

The events involved resemble policy-making in the Green Zone:

1. The guidance is about five years too late.

…

4. The entire mortgage industry ignored the guidance. Totally. Our firm has not received a single e-mail from any wholesaler even considering compliance with the interest-only and negative-am requirements. [my emphasis]

[2]: Press Release: “OFHEO Directs Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to follow nontraditional mortgage risk guidance”, OFHEO, December 13, 2006.

“[Lereah's] widely quoted sound bites sound like they’re written by a PR firm. They’re filled with contradictions and are sloppy and vague. His statements are not an accurate reflection of market conditions and his predictions have little value.”

Entire article here: [corrected JM, score two for Boulder RE professionals last Friday!]

“Not My Favorite Clown”, by OSMAN, BoulderRealty blog, December 15, 2006.

(lots of important stuff today)

Letters-of-fire time for Puplava.

“The titans of finance are jumping headfirst into the mortgage business at the same time that the people who know this market best are scaling back.”

Hussman seems baffled that the markets can continue being irrational for so long.

“Again, however, nothing prevents investors from driving the market higher over the short-term so long as Wall Street analysts propagate the same sort of ignorance that they encouraged in the late 1990′s. In any event, further market gains on the hallucination that P/E multiples are ‘reasonable’ will only make the long-term resolution worse.”

http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2006/12/retail_booming_.html

4. Sounds Like a Plan… A Very Bad Plan

More than half of recently surveyed British mortgage brokers said their clients admit to buying property to supplement poor retirement savings, according to the Telegraph.

A lack of confidence in the stock market is fueling increased investment in rental properties despite the fact the income from the properties in many cases fails to cover interest and management costs, the Telegraph said.
Borrowing by so-called “buy-to-let “investors will rise more quickly than borrowing by home owners and will account for 13% of gross lending in 2007 and 14%in 2008, up from 11% in 2006, according to the Council of Mortgage Lenders.
The phrase “buy-to-let” is simply the British vernacular for buying a residential property to lease for a profit and the particular category of mortgage loans used to purchase the property for leasing.
A survey published this week shows eight in 10 mortgage brokers expect to see an increase in buy-to-let lending in 2007 from today’s already record levels.
Claire Burston, at financial consultancy Penrose which commissioned the study, told the Telegraph: “People are becoming increasingly aware of the need to supplement their existing savings prior to retirement and this will result in a boom in the buy-to-let market.”
Meanwhile, two weeks ago UCB Homeloans announced it was relaxing buy-to-let lending criteria.
So, let’s see if we got this right. What we have here is people who haven’t saved enough money for retirement buying property they can’t afford (thanks to relaxed lending standards) and renting the property for less than the cost of carry to other people who apparently can’t afford to buy a home either.
If we hated money this is exactly what we would do to get rid of it.

the rest is also worth reading!

http://www.minyanville.com/articles/index.php?a=11788