It’s close to the end of the month, and I couldn’t help but take a sneak peak at how Phoenix housing will look. As you might expect- so far the vast majority of homes that started the month with a sale sign- still have the darn thing in the yard. Here’s the numbers :
Sales: December 2006 (first 27 days) 3,989
Sales: December 2005 (first 27 days) 5,394
Sales: November 2006 (first 27 days) 3,978
A large number of closings (which is typical) at the end of the month can significantly change the final number in any month. However, based on the current trend, it appears that sales are virtually unchanged from November, and down 27% from last December. In December of 2005, the market had already started slowing, and was at it’s lowest level since 2002.
Another interest thing to note is the number of (TOM) "temporarily off market" homes there are. As of 12/27, there were 2,776 homes listed as (TOM). That means they won’t be listed in December’s inventory, but you know they are planning to join the ranks of sellers again in the new year.
I wouldn’t try dancing on this "bottom"- it could give out right under you.
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Forget 2005. We’re not going to see another year like that for some time.
How about:
Sales: December 2002 (first 27 days): ???
Sales: November 2003 (first 27 days): ???
This is a better gage of today’s market.