HousingDoom has the unofficial sales numbers for Phoenix, thanks to one of our favorite sources. December posted a total of 5,480 sales, up from 5,310 in November (3.2%), but down year over year from last December’s 6528 by 16%. According to the Arizona Regional MLS, December sales for the previous few years were as follows:
2002: 5940
2003: 6357
2004: 7902
That would put last month’s sales below even 2002 levels, and down 31% off their peak from 2004.
Last year, in spite of the fact that the market had already begun to cool, Jay Butler in his January 2006 report gave this rosy assessment of the market [and if you follow this link, remember that Jay Butler's numbers differ slightly from ARMLS]:
The last few months have shown a return to a more normal or sustainable level.
Since the 55,370 recorded sales in 2000, the local resale housing market has been consistently setting new records for activity. In a rapidly growing area like Greater Phoenix, new records should be expected.
It will be interesting to see what records are set this year.
Wow. 8% below 2002 levels.
I’m actually shocked that December is as high as it is!
I was expecting low 4,XXX somewhere, with all of the forces pushing down on sales volume.
It would be easy to see more sales if prices significantly dropped, so it will be interesting to get the Dec. 06 median pricing to factor in to the YOY numbers.
Anyone have an idea as to why there were (even) this many sales?
Asset Hunter
(shameless flattery alert)
Twist ~ for your hard work and diligence… if ANYONE deserves a $ 1.5 + million dollar home in Gilbert… It’s You!!!
Again… Thanks getting this data to us!!!
Wow. Great data twist. I can easily understand the 2000 plus less buyers. Some are those marginal buyers for whom trick mortgages will no longer work. The decline is also probably comprised of those “investors” who hit the “flip this house” wall and those equity challenged who can only trade up when they sell at a now much more difficult (but obviously not impossible) extreme mark-up. But what do you make of the other 5000+ December buyers. I do not believe that, as some comments have suggested, they are all”sheep” or decieved by Realty Nation propaganda. And it defies imagination that most are not now aware of the ongoing correction through the MSM. In the last two months almost 11000 people bought houses in what objectively appears to be one of the most risky markets in the US. What do you see when you look at it from that perspective? Clearly alot of people reject the strictly economic buy/rent tests (myself included) and probaby always have. Is that one reason why housing prices are “sticky down”?
Asset Hunter-
There are a lot of people that believe this is a “buyers market,” and that prices will come back in the spring. I see an amazing amount of speculators still running around, picking up “bargains.”
Housing busts generally don’t happen fast, they kind of fizzle- although this one is fizzling faster than general expectations.
I think I’ll pass on that $1.5M house. (Most of them are going to sell south of 7 figures anyway!)