With regard to the existence of some “collective”, this “they” and “us” stuff always devolves into untestable myth. And if it actually comes down to that put me with “them” who not only believe, but actively work to keep things advancing AWAY FROM DOOM. If you prefer the other side, I can only wonder why?

Ultimately the MSM does not discuss “fiat currency” or predict 1920s style depression as imminent. If you decide to believe it is because of some capitalist collective (an ironic oxymoron) or the “hired gun” effect so be it. Some of us believe they avoid such topics and predictions because they are known to be the product of ignorance, and sometimes the province of …evil, I have no other word for it.

History is full of examples of mass media opinion narrowed by force, a necessary prerequiste for “the big lie”. We current see movement in that direction by Comrade Chavez and a far more creepy movement back into that darkness in Russia. To suggest that financial reporting in the US shares much in common with these examples exposes, in my view, serious questions regarding the judgment of more than the MSM.

You know we have recently been getting more disclosure from Cramer. I saw him on Bloomberg or one of those, saying that high gas prices were hurting some luxury development he was involved in. (I think 2.5M+ homes?) Apparently the super rich don’t like paying a couple of extra bucks for gas.

As an English teacher of mine once put it, “You dance with the fella what brung ya.” Most of the “analysts” we see in the media are paid spokesman for their industry, and it always pays to remember that bias.

[My disclosure- as a renter, I remain short on SF housing!] : )

Cramer and Kudlow are two names that come to mind, when I think of the collective. They and many others establish a forward momentum, which is not easily stopped, despite the obvious pitfalls that lay ahead. They tend to lull us into a false sense of security, that everything is OK, and that everything will be fine for ages to come, and we believe them.

I understand the power of the collective, and its ability to stave off the hard times, for long periods of time. And when train wrecks occur, such as the NASDAQ bust, their’s hardly a scratch. But I know that this just puts off the pain for another day.

It just seems to me, that the Piper is on his way to be paid. And believe me, he will be paid, in our lifetime.

I have been in a strange position here. In my life and when dealing with professionals I am classified as a “very conservative” investor (money not politics) and a stern “bear”. I suspect that is hardly your view of me. While such things are a matter of perspective, I try to follow the “moderation in most things” view.The center of the waterway is usually the safest to travel.

There are many on both sides who are just biased by self interest, the realtor commission mongers and investment shills, and those selling gold, and guns and gloom for profit. Neither are in the waterway.

In additon to the self-interested, we have the unrealistic extremists. While one side sees great profits in Beanie Babbies, penny stocks and “collector” trinkets, the other sees financial and social collapse in every change, every bit of news. Some in this later group hate our free-market system, or feel they have not been fairly rewarded. They express sympathy for those in need but also seem to lust for a “doom” that can only cast far greater numbers into far worse circumstance. Some seem almost pathelogical in their one sided approach to facts, and their unwillingness to consider that a long history of failed predictions of doom may actually be a pattern they should heed. It is their near enchantment with imminent ruin, often in the face of credible evidence to the contrary, that marks their problematic opinions. Frequently they retreat to conspiracy theories that by sound definition are untenable, yet difficult to disprove because they are made of only smoke, rumor and refracted light. This later group has taken hold naturally in the virtual world of e-opinion.

This site has helped many in these rough and uncertain waters of the recent real estate markets. You have marked true depth and warned of bad currents. Of this you should be proud.

And, as I think you also know,in my view you have occasional taken detours to the landfalls populated by those with fringe views regarding the future health of the US financial, social and political system generally. You have provided a forum to some who are preaching views that can only fairly be characterized as extremists. Some are practiced decievers. From their shore, the center of the waterway may look like boosterism in support of some “big lie”. The pathology necessary to actually believe the entire MSM, government, and academic community in the US participate in such a “big lie” escapes naming, but it is not normal or sound as I understand those terms. To have self-doubt when visiting that shore is a very good thing. The future may be difficult, but contemplating, let alone advocating, a future where slow old guys like me are just easy protein for others in a decaying world, stikes me as both unproductive and socially irresponsible.

On balance the good here so far outweighs the other it is a pleasure to visit the site. Many of the sources I would not characterize as mainstream are still reasoned and add value, MISH comes to mind here. But remember, while the river is wide, it does have rocky shores. And those who inhabit the forests beyond are unlikely to help us reason together, for it is reason itself they lack.

Thanks for the kind words. I’m only starting to straighten out the apparent contradiction (the released 2006 figures are down, the December ’06 figures, perhaps seasonally adjusted(?), are up perhaps because Dec was very warm in the US). Meanwhile FOMC seems frozen at 5.25 and until they unstick folks confidently predict rising rates to one group and falling to another depending on context. Even within the bubble community both hyperinflation and severe deflation are predicted.

Anyway I’m glad I’m not alone in my confusion, and perhaps many people pooling their common sense can start seeing what is really happening.

By the way …

Thanks once again to the Doomer who communicated about my putting last year’s dates on all those references from yesterday’s stories … (oops!)

Just to give an example, let’s unpack what Gramley is quoted as saying:

Applications for loans to purchase houses are going back up again now

This is just flat out wrong, purchase apps have been falling the past three weeks, after rising for most of Nov. and early Dec. See calculated risk or cnnfn.com for the true story.

Sales have basically been going sideways for five months

Only if you look at seasonally adjusted number is this statement factually correct. The NSA numbers tell a different story, actual sales not imaginary ones are falling.

And this is coming from a former Fed Governor, who presumably holds advanced degrees in something. Personally, when I read comments like this it gives me the impression that economics is more akin to astrology than a real science.

Another part of the problem is that the information age we live in gives us too much information. The other day I was reading a story on Bloomberg about the bond market which managed to contradict itself within the same few paragraphs (bonds are going up! no, wait, they are going to fall.) The great thing about the blogs is that they have the power to harness the logic of many to cut through all the confusion.

The main stream media have had their day, it’s over now and the sooner we all realize that they are dinosaurs the better off we’ll be.