That will come, of course, in a few years, once the effects of the bubble are past.
“Now that that bubble has passed, the one that we’ve been denying straight-faced as it happened all along, it’s time to buy, buy, buy!”

If anyone can frame any of this up for me so it makes sense I’d much appreciate it. For now I guess I’ll go back to my non-MSM alternate universe. Smiles all.

The line in Hamlet comes to mind:

"The lady [or MSM] doth protest too much, methinks."

http://www.eastvalleytribune.com/index.php?sty=83184

Just because builders take out 55 percent fewer permits, that doesn’t necessarily translate into a stabilizing market.

The builders are making a prudent, long-overdue decision to “stabilize” their bottom lines and try to reduce inventory. OK, fine.

But what the MSM can’t seem to realize is that builders have “sold forward” so badly over the last few years, that nothing short of totally stopping new construction is going to “stabilize” the market, if that.

Question: Were most of the new home sales since 2004 made by “end users” or by flippers in their many disguises, i.e. “second (or third) homes” or “vacation homes” or (now) “don’t-wannabe landlords”?

Even if that ratio was 50/50, that’s a lot of “new” inventory that isn’t in the hands of “end users.” These houses are almost certain to come back on the MLS in some fashion or another, and they will come back as “resales,” including forclosures.

So there’s plenty of “new” or lightly-rented properties out there, regardless if builders put down their hammer and nails for a few months.

The bottom line: builders have “cannibalized” their pool of buyers so badly, I’m not sure a slowdown in permits will make much difference at this point. Just because they pull fewer permits so they can “clear out the existing inventory,” that doesn’t necessarily mean that inventory is going to sell.

What buyers are left? Dead people? Children? Because anyone with a pulse and a wish for the “American Dream” has already bought.

And now that subprime credit is starting to tighten, that’s only going to keep the inventory numbers soaring. Can’t wait until after the Super Bowl to see the spring dead-cat bounce.

– The Judge
“Remember, sell now or be priced in forever.”

Comment by MazNJ
2007-01-31 08:50:12
I went searching caches and the number for december was revised UP from 109, so in this case, it actually is going in the opposite direction. While I suspect many groups of revision boosting, this is not apparently the case here. The 105.3 was the same. Basically, the Nov to Dec gain was higher than expected.

I mentioned this stats scam over at Ben’s Bits this morning, where I termed it revision boost.

it looks like the quality of dozens of us numbers are worthless and missleading.

no wonder the fed is often behind the curve……

Looks like this little trick may be more widespread than we thought. I’ve just put a 310 story cluster up about rising US “consumer confidence”, but here again the headline trend is that same apples-and-oranges comparison between this month’s raw figure versus last month’s revised, with the old raw number nowhere to be found.

“Behind Consumers’ Growing Confidence: With gas prices down and the job market up, consumers are feeling better about the economy”, by Pallavi Gogoi, BusinessWeek, January 31, 2006.

The Conference Board’s survey of consumers revealed that an expanding labor market and rising wages are giving Americans more money to spend. Most Americans feel good enough about their situations that they plan to buy cars or homes in the next six months. The board’s consumer confidence index for January rose to 110.3, from a revised 110.0 in December and 105.3 in November. “This month’s slight increase in confidence was…fueled primarily by a more favorable job market,” says Lynn Franco, director of the Conference Board Consumer Research Center.

And here’s the kicker: with all the fraud going on, and the sales incentives that don’t get counted, we know these downward-revised numbers are bogus as well.

Every newspaper that ran the previous story should have to publish an update, showing the real numbers. Of course, when they can’t even be bothered to include the “margin for error” in their stories — which in many cases is not an insignificant statistic — I won’t be holding my breath waiting on any revisions from the previous bright and cheery “market-has-stabilized” stories.

– The Judge
“Remember, sell now or be priced in forever.”