Housing Doom Housing Bubble Blog

A nation that forgets its past is doomed to repeat it. - Churchill

February 12th, 2007

The Crack of Doom - Week of Feb 12, 2007

I’m going into light hibernation starting this week, but Igor has strict instructions to wake me up fast if MuniMae pops its head out of the rabbit-hole again.  Last week saw the big Black Thursday shocks to the Subprime market, and Doom will be following the grownups as they move to contain the damage over the next days. Twist already has two important articles up, and I’m off to hear some poetry, maybe even poetry about housing.

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February 12th, 2007

If You Used an Exotic Mortgage, Does That Make You a Victim? Should Banks Be Required to Save You?

I’m visiting family in the Houston area, where I have picked up a copy of "The Real Estate Book."  It’s one of those guides you see in grocery stores and restaurants, filled with listings and the occasional mortgage ad.

I wish I had a link for this ad, but it’s in the Brazoria/Matagorda County Vol. 18, #3, pg 35.  [I’d scan it if I were home.] It says:

When our customers ask us to approve a loan… we say "Yes!"

Down Payment Source?  Who Cares?
Late or Slow Credit?  No Problem!
Repossession?  Same as a trade-in!
Judgments?  What’s that?
Open Charge Offs & Collections?  Leave ‘em open!
Tax Liens?  Even more of a reason to buy a house!
Defaulted Student Loans?  A Free Government Loan!
Debt ratios?  The higher the better!
Bankruptcy?  Wonderful!
Foreclosures?  Okay, if it’s not ours!
We are Self Employed Specialist!
Free Credit Repair Assistance!

The ad is for Roosevelt Mortgage Inc, who says they are the number one nonconforming mortgage brokerage in Texas.

I think that if you are the kind of borrower they are talking about, the odds are quite good that you are trying to get into a mortgage you can’t afford- and you know it.  Why worry about it though?  Lots of people have done the same thing, and now they are enjoying the "dream of home ownership."

Well now the dream has gone sour for a lot of people.  It’s tougher and tougher for homeowners to sell or refi our way out of trouble.  The Palm Beach Post sympathetically says:
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February 12th, 2007

Phoenix- What Rental Shortage?

"I’m sick of these low ball offers!  I’m just going to rent the house out!" is being heard all over Phoenix.  For that reason, I’ve watched the number of rentals grow and rental prices stay rather stagnant in Gilbert for the past year or so.  That’s why I was surprised when L sent me the following from the Arizona Republic:

Your rent is rising faster than your paycheck. A new report this morning shows Valley renters will pay 5.4 percent more this year, to $785 a month.

That monthly rent is just about equal to the average weekly paycheck of $794 in Maricopa County. But wages are rising just 4 percent a year, and on top of that, consumers are already dealing with rising energy prices and soaring health care bills.

With vacancy rates projected to fall below 5 percent for the first time in years, renters won’t see many give-backs from their landlords this year, according to real estate brokerage Marcus & Millichap.

But renting is looking more attractive to people priced out of the housing market. The latest forecast shows one paycheck will cover the rent; you would need at least two paychecks to cover the median monthly mortgage payment of $1,300.

I believe them when they say rents are running about half the price of a mortgage- that’s about what I’ve been seeing.  The "shortage" surprised me though, so L looked into it for me.  He said:
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