In last month’s episode of "Spinning Pending Home Sales"- we left David Lereah, chief economist of the National Association of Realtors, (NAR) getting excited about the November to December increase in pending sales:
Pending home sales are higher, affirming the stabilization that is occurring in home sales, according to the National Association of Realtors.
The Pending Home Sales index, based on contracts signed in December, rose 4.9% to an index of 112.4 from an upwardly revised level of 107.2 in November, but is 4.4% lower than December 2005.
This in spite of stating further in the report:
There is a closer parallel between annual index changes (from the same month a year earlier) and year-ago changes in sales performance than there is with month-to-month comparisons.
So while Lereah states that year-over-year is the better indicator of sales performance, he chose to focus on month-to-month.
Fast forward to March 6, 2007 and the January sales report. Here’s what happened in January:
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