According to Hubble Smith in this morning’s Las Vegas Review Journal: [Hat tip Judge!]
There are 19,639 single-family homes for sale on the Multiple Listing Service, up 4.6 percent from 18,774 in January and up 11 percent from 17,675 in February 2006. Condos and townhomes for sale increased to 5,524, up 8 percent from 5,116 in January and up 34 percent from 5,212 last February.
Single-family sales slumped to 1,407 in February, a 21.3 percent decrease from the same month a year ago, but 10 more homes than were sold in January.
The condo and townhouse segment was worse. The 277 sales in February were off 12.9 percent from the previous month and 42.8 percent from a year ago.
This is not good news for the Las Vegas home market. This means there is a 14 months supply of SF homes on the market, and a 20 month supply of condos on the market. Realtors like to call a 6 month supply a "balanced" market- these ratios indicate stress in the market. Prices are expected to decline, as sellers are forced to compete for the few available buyers.
Encouraged by the GLVAR, many sellers took their homes off the market in the past winter, so it is expected that inventory will continue to grow in the coming months.
[All emphasis mine]
Lake Las Vegas home builder sent me infro back in Dec on new homesites and that i should get registered for the drawing? I now recieve a letter saying the drawing in March has been cancelled till further notice. I think #1 nobody really registered and #2 they probally had nobody to actually conduct the drawing?
This whole mess is just the tip, if spring is a bust and all indications point to a burst of epic magnatiude this nonsense the Gov’t feeds us that housing is not a drag on the economy will be felt like a 7.5 quake, i think it is that bad now and going to get rougher sorry to say..
Twist –
I just noticed a discrepancy. Take a look at your charts, and then look at the newspaper’s chart on the link. I think the GLVAR is again playing fast and loose with inventory numbers.
As you might recall, there was some question that a math error resulted in the GLVAR’s huge inventory number from October. As I recall, that 23,000-plus number was a total for SFHs and condos. But in the GLVAR chart in the paper, it shows it as being only for SFHs.
Your charts seem more in line with Housing Tracker’s numbers, which show inventory in Las Vegas reaching an all-time high this week.
Maybe I’m getting hung up on a statistical flaw that has never been corrected (by the GLVAR or the newspaper), but the newspaper’s chart makes it look like current inventory is still 4,000 below the inventory record. But we know that’s not the case, and it’s misleading.
Any thoughts?
– The Judge
“Sell now or be priced in forever.”
Also … congrats Twist on being mentioned in the AP article. Seeing the NAR spinmeisters held to account for bogus statements makes my day.
As many of us have said, this market isn’t truly going to change or “bottom” until the psychology changes. It might take 10 years, but sooner or later people will realize that housing doesn’t always gain value, it’s not always a good time to buy, and that home “ownership” isn’t necessarily the “American Dream.”
AP’s business stories don’t usually cut to the chase very well, but that one did. Every home owner or prospective buyer should read that story. And here it is:
http://www.kentucky.com/mld/kentucky/business/16869997.htm
– The Judge
“Sell now or be priced in forever.”
I’m afraid that D.H. Horton Inc.’s CEO Donald J. Tomnitz will not be on the Christmas Card List of the other builders in 2007.
That kind of honesty simply will NOT be tolerated in this industry!!!!!!!
Unless, of course, it gets overwhelmingly undeniable, then they will all say that THEY were the first to announce the “further, welcomed and much needed correction.”
David Lereah was 100%!
When David said last March Sales prices have stabilized he was right. It is a very stable decline.
Judge-
The above charts are the inventory/sales ratios. While I understand the GLVAR quietly admitted there was an error, no correction was ever issued- so their error stays on the chart.
I keep a chart now where I track the listed/delisted ratios, which is the best way to catch “adjustments.” If they were way off in their numbers, I know how to catch them now. : )