The New Home Sales Report was released this morning by the Commerce Department:
According to Reuters:
New single-family home sales fell to an annual rate of 848,000 units from a downwardly revised rate of 882,000 in January, the Commerce Department said. Analysts polled by Reuters were expecting February sales to rise to 985,000 from the previously reported rate of 937,000 units in JanuaryThe monthly decline was the second straight and the volume of sales fell to their lowest level since June 2000, when they hit 793,000.
This represents a 3.9% decline month-over-month and 18.3% year-over-year.
The median price of a new home was $250,000- virtually unchanged from last year’s $250,800. Price does not reflect homebuilder incentives, nor is it adjusted for inflation.
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Inventory contines to climb. From MarketWatch:
Inventories of unsold homes rose 1.5% to 546,000, representing an 8.1-month supply, the largest inventory in relation to sales since January 1991. The inventory is up 26.6% in the past 12 months.
The only comfort for housing bulls this month is the large margin of error, which makes it possible that things aren’t as dire as they seem:
Sales of new one-family houses in February 2007 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 848,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 3.9 percent (±17.4%)* below the revised January rate of 882,000 and is 18.3 percent (±12.2%) below the February 2006 estimate of 1,038,000.
Given the general trend of the market though, that comfort is a small one.
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add to the mess that the big subprime implosion happened just the last month…….
lets hope that everybody who signed a contract in february gets the financing……
good to know that cancellations are not reportet…
Jan-Martin-
I noticed that the NAHB is showing that their inventory is growing at a slower rate than the NAR, which seems unlikely to me. We know sales are overstated as cancellations are not factored in, so I suspect inventory is grossly understated.
CNBC is saying how shocked the analysts were. I would have been shocked if their estimates had been achieved.
oh the analysts…. the nerverending story.
could be the same analyst i´ve heard on one homebuilder call last year that bought in naples (close to the peak).
i think he is in permanent shock since then…..
rodger rafter has a good chart on how the revisions looked in the last 6 month
uups
here the link
http://rebalancing.blogspot.com/2007/03/so-much-for-real-estate-stabilizing.html
Jan-Martin-
Great link. When you read the methodology on the U.S. Census site, it says it bases it’s calculations on the past ten years. The past ten years are not a good predictor of where we are headed now.
Tales of the Unexpected
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2007/03/tales-of-unexpected.html
Thanks RodgerRafter, JMF, and Housing Doom
Tales of the Unexpected / mish
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2007/03/tales-of-unexpected.html
with a graph from this post
jan-martin, it’s always fun browsing a few months back in the archives. Especially when you were so right – lenders are quickly closing the drawstrings on current and recently past deals!
Looking the same in my area as well. I have been specializing in Marin Real Estate off and on for several years, but I never get tired of reading about lenders. Thanks for the great info.