Comments on: The Ghost of Housing Busts Past http://housingdoom.com/2007/03/27/housing-ghosts-past/ Sat, 11 Feb 2012 07:12:54 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v= By: MikeC http://housingdoom.com/2007/03/27/housing-ghosts-past/#comment-4408 MikeC Thu, 29 Mar 2007 02:27:20 +0000 http://housingdoom.com/2007/03/27/housing-ghosts-past/#comment-4408 rogersmith8080: >>The News Papers make a lot of money off the >>housing market. I've been saying this for a long time, too. The local newspapers and local television newscasts simply have no vested interest in fully reporting, loud and clear, when real estate times are "bad". At least they haven't been reporting anywhere near as loud and clear as when prices kept rising. Why, all that advertising revenue to be lost from real estate companies and agents! Not to mention revenue from a myriad of companies connected to home renovations, mortgage loans, etc, etc. While it is not a total and complete whitewash in the local newspaper/tv news industries- they may let a story or two out to print when the bad news is obvious - this does not compare with the constant deluge of stories we had to put up with in 2005/2006 when prices kept rising. I particularly remember tuning into one local newscast one night, to have the news anchor advise, "If you haven't bought a home yet, you better do so soon, before it is too late!", followed by a completely one-sided scare-mongering story about how anybody that hasn't bought into the local market would be better to mortgage themselves to the max rather than risk being left "priced out forever!". The story did not include a single person with an opposing point of view or advice. rogersmith8080:
>>The News Papers make a lot of money off the >>housing market.

I’ve been saying this for a long time, too.

The local newspapers and local television newscasts simply have no vested interest in fully reporting, loud and clear, when real estate times are “bad”. At least they haven’t been reporting anywhere near as loud and clear as when prices kept rising.

Why, all that advertising revenue to be lost from real estate companies and agents! Not to mention revenue from a myriad of companies connected to home renovations, mortgage loans, etc, etc.

While it is not a total and complete whitewash in the local newspaper/tv news industries-
they may let a story or two out to print when the bad news is obvious – this does not compare with the constant deluge of stories we had to put up with in 2005/2006 when prices kept rising.

I particularly remember tuning into one local newscast one night, to have the news anchor advise, “If you haven’t bought a home yet, you better do so soon, before it is too late!”, followed by a completely one-sided scare-mongering story about how anybody that hasn’t bought into the local market would be better to mortgage themselves to the max rather than risk being left “priced out forever!”. The story did not include a single person with an opposing point of view or advice.

]]> By: rogersmith8080 http://housingdoom.com/2007/03/27/housing-ghosts-past/#comment-4407 rogersmith8080 Wed, 28 Mar 2007 23:30:15 +0000 http://housingdoom.com/2007/03/27/housing-ghosts-past/#comment-4407 -Lehighvalley The News Papers make a lot of money off the housing market. News Papers have been hit hard, most of thier revenue is from advertisments NOT the price to buy it, that usually covers just the cost to print and deliver it. The internet has pulled out a lot of revenue, need a job go to Monster.com. Need to sell or buy junk go to eBay.com. However if you are looking for houses the New Paper is still a good source for listings. The Paper's know who is paying the bills and they are linked in this way to the housing industry. Who would have thought that the Housing Market fall out could affect another industry? Its almost like a contagion. -Lehighvalley

The News Papers make a lot of money off the housing market. News Papers have been hit hard, most of thier revenue is from advertisments NOT the price to buy it, that usually covers just the cost to print and deliver it. The internet has pulled out a lot of revenue, need a job go to Monster.com. Need to sell or buy junk go to eBay.com.

However if you are looking for houses the New Paper is still a good source for listings. The Paper’s know who is paying the bills and they are linked in this way to the housing industry.

Who would have thought that the Housing Market fall out could affect another industry? Its almost like a contagion.

]]> By: LEHIGHVALLEY http://housingdoom.com/2007/03/27/housing-ghosts-past/#comment-4406 LEHIGHVALLEY Wed, 28 Mar 2007 19:11:34 +0000 http://housingdoom.com/2007/03/27/housing-ghosts-past/#comment-4406 YOU SHOULD SEE WHAT HAPPENED AROUND THE LEHIGH VALLEY, ALLENTOWN, PA AREA. OUR PRICES DOUBLED SINCE 2002. NOBODY AROUND HERE INCLUDING THE LOCAL PAPER WILL ADMIT WE ARE A MAJOR BUBBLE. YOU SHOULD READ THE PAPER, THEY TRY AND TELL PEOPLE "NO BUBBLE HERE". AT THE SAME TIME HOUSES ALL OVER HAVE PRICE REDUCTIONS & INCENTIVES WITH NO TAKERS. PEOPLE AROUND HERE ACTUALLY THINK IT'S NORMAL FOR PRICES TO JUMP 100% IN 5 YEARS. THEY THINK IT'S BECAUSE PEOPLE FROM NJ & NYC DROVE UP THE PRICES. THEY DON'T REALIZE WE ARE NOT A BEDROOM COMMUNITY. A BEDROOM COMMUNITY IS NOT 2 HOURS EACH WAY FROM NYC. PEOPLE ARE GOING TO SEE BIG LOSSES IN OUR AREA FOR SURE. ANYONE ELSE FROM AROUND THIS AREA? YOU SHOULD SEE WHAT HAPPENED AROUND THE LEHIGH VALLEY, ALLENTOWN, PA AREA. OUR PRICES DOUBLED SINCE 2002. NOBODY AROUND HERE INCLUDING THE LOCAL PAPER WILL ADMIT WE ARE A MAJOR BUBBLE. YOU SHOULD READ THE PAPER, THEY TRY AND TELL PEOPLE “NO BUBBLE HERE”. AT THE SAME TIME HOUSES ALL OVER HAVE PRICE REDUCTIONS & INCENTIVES WITH NO TAKERS. PEOPLE AROUND HERE ACTUALLY THINK IT’S NORMAL FOR PRICES TO JUMP 100% IN 5 YEARS. THEY THINK IT’S BECAUSE PEOPLE FROM NJ & NYC DROVE UP THE PRICES. THEY DON’T REALIZE WE ARE NOT A BEDROOM COMMUNITY. A BEDROOM COMMUNITY IS NOT 2 HOURS EACH WAY FROM NYC. PEOPLE ARE GOING TO SEE BIG LOSSES IN OUR AREA FOR SURE. ANYONE ELSE FROM AROUND THIS AREA?

]]> By: astrozombie http://housingdoom.com/2007/03/27/housing-ghosts-past/#comment-4405 astrozombie Wed, 28 Mar 2007 06:08:34 +0000 http://housingdoom.com/2007/03/27/housing-ghosts-past/#comment-4405 In Phoenix, I suspect a lot of the activity had to do with speculators and mortgage fraud. I'm still shopping for a home in N. Scottsdale and 90% of the homes I've toured are empty (no talent flippers). Others are reduced 150k to 200k and are most likely mortgage fraud victims. Some others haven't reduced - they are typically people HELOC'ed to the limit and will be foreclosed on or are people just testing the waters. In Phoenix, I suspect a lot of the activity had to do with speculators and mortgage fraud. I’m still shopping for a home in N. Scottsdale and 90% of the homes I’ve toured are empty (no talent flippers). Others are reduced 150k to 200k and are most likely mortgage fraud victims. Some others haven’t reduced – they are typically people HELOC’ed to the limit and will be foreclosed on or are people just testing the waters.

]]> By: Mike-a.k.a.Sage http://housingdoom.com/2007/03/27/housing-ghosts-past/#comment-4404 Mike-a.k.a.Sage Wed, 28 Mar 2007 05:56:54 +0000 http://housingdoom.com/2007/03/27/housing-ghosts-past/#comment-4404 The enormous inflation in home prices between 2002 and 2005, is to blame for the housing crash. It was the price, stupid! The fuel for the astronomical home price inflation was the easy credit. As prices got higher, Toxic loans were invented, to compensate for the higher prices, while credit was still easy, which drove prices even higher. In the end, easy credit and exotic loans could not justify the inflated home prices, no matter what the interest rate or loan type. In the end, it was the price, stupid. Why does the MSM avoid like the plague, talking about the inflated prices of homes, which is the root cause of the housing crash? How about an extended discussion on the blogs about the actual high home prices, which triggered this crash? If the blog discussions focus on price, the MSM will eventually pick it up. The enormous inflation in home prices between 2002 and 2005, is to blame for the housing crash. It was

the price, stupid!

The fuel for the astronomical home price inflation was the easy credit. As prices got higher, Toxic loans

were invented, to compensate for the higher prices, while credit was still easy, which drove prices even

higher.

In the end, easy credit and exotic loans could not justify the inflated home prices, no matter what the

interest rate or loan type. In the end, it was the price, stupid.

Why does the MSM avoid like the plague, talking about the inflated prices of homes, which is the root

cause of the housing crash?

How about an extended discussion on the blogs about the actual high home prices, which triggered this

crash? If the blog discussions focus on price, the MSM will eventually pick it up.

]]> By: ROpenHouse http://housingdoom.com/2007/03/27/housing-ghosts-past/#comment-4403 ROpenHouse Wed, 28 Mar 2007 03:02:10 +0000 http://housingdoom.com/2007/03/27/housing-ghosts-past/#comment-4403 It would be interesting to see what were the other charteristics that lead up to the busts in these areas and are those same characteristics repeating themselves today? I would be interested in knowing if their were a disproportionate number of foreclosures, or local economy issues (ie CAT in Peoria) or whether their were creative financing messups like the subprime issue we have today. I would hate to hear that similar trends existed in those years that are repeating themselves today. ROpenHouse <a title="RopenHouse.com" href="http://www.ropenhouse.com" rel="nofollow"> - The Open House Network - ROpenHouse </a> It would be interesting to see what were the other charteristics that lead up to the busts in these areas and are those same characteristics repeating themselves today? I would be interested in knowing if their were a disproportionate number of foreclosures, or local economy issues (ie CAT in Peoria) or whether their were creative financing messups like the subprime issue we have today. I would hate to hear that similar trends existed in those years that are repeating themselves today.

ROpenHouse
– The Open House Network – ROpenHouse

]]> By: twist http://housingdoom.com/2007/03/27/housing-ghosts-past/#comment-4402 twist Wed, 28 Mar 2007 00:15:05 +0000 http://housingdoom.com/2007/03/27/housing-ghosts-past/#comment-4402 MikeC- The article indicated that the chart was in nominal prices, so the LA drop in real dollars was 34%, making recovery longer. MikeC-

The article indicated that the chart was in nominal prices, so the LA drop in real dollars was 34%, making recovery longer.

]]> By: MikeC http://housingdoom.com/2007/03/27/housing-ghosts-past/#comment-4401 MikeC Tue, 27 Mar 2007 22:08:41 +0000 http://housingdoom.com/2007/03/27/housing-ghosts-past/#comment-4401 QUESTION: Perhaps I missed the part in the post that clarifies this (I didn't read the source article, either), but in the "Historic Busts" chart, under "Years to Recover", what does "recover" really imply? ..a recovery to the price at the top? ..a recovery to historically-expected prices (ie: rising steadily with inflation? QUESTION:
Perhaps I missed the part in the post that clarifies this (I didn’t read the source article, either), but in the “Historic Busts” chart, under “Years to Recover”, what does “recover” really imply?

..a recovery to the price at the top?
..a recovery to historically-expected prices (ie: rising steadily with inflation?

]]> By: twist http://housingdoom.com/2007/03/27/housing-ghosts-past/#comment-4400 twist Tue, 27 Mar 2007 20:36:53 +0000 http://housingdoom.com/2007/03/27/housing-ghosts-past/#comment-4400 Sellers remain convinced they just need to hang in there. This year however, it looks like the swallows aren't coming back to Capistrano. Next fall should be educational. Sellers remain convinced they just need to hang in there. This year however, it looks like the swallows aren’t coming back to Capistrano.

Next fall should be educational.

]]> By: MikeC http://housingdoom.com/2007/03/27/housing-ghosts-past/#comment-4399 MikeC Tue, 27 Mar 2007 20:22:01 +0000 http://housingdoom.com/2007/03/27/housing-ghosts-past/#comment-4399 Interesting comments, guys!! >>FACT: >>“There are no buyers left who can or will buy >>at or above 2005 prices.” Very true! It is a matter of reality that people will not having 20% more money to buy a house every year, ad infinitum. That is what the measure of INFLATION is for, to help us see at what rate prices are generally going (and thus wages). This is why, historically, real estate prices have always followed a rate of increase that is at (just a little lower, actually) the rate of inflation. So real estate prices have strayed off this rate for the last couple years? That only means there must be a decline or stagnation in prices until real estate prices are back onto that age-old path. ... AND ... "auto makers have tried 0% rates and lower prices...the public just became fed up with the bad products and lies at... so they moved on" Too few flippers and investors realize that the NAR is nothing but spin, bias, and even lies. But once they do, you can be sure they will move on from thinking that real estate is a viable place to make money. Interesting comments, guys!!

>>FACT:
>>“There are no buyers left who can or will buy >>at or above 2005 prices.”

Very true! It is a matter of reality that people will not having 20% more money to buy a house every year, ad infinitum.

That is what the measure of INFLATION is for, to help us see at what rate prices are generally going (and thus wages).

This is why, historically, real estate prices have always followed a rate of increase that is at (just a little lower, actually) the rate of inflation. So real estate prices have strayed off this rate for the last couple years? That only means there must be a decline or stagnation in prices until real estate prices are back onto that age-old path.

…
AND
…
“auto makers have tried 0% rates and lower prices…the public just became fed up with the bad products and lies at… so they moved on”

Too few flippers and investors realize that the NAR is nothing but spin, bias, and even lies. But once they do, you can be sure they will move on from thinking that real estate is a viable place to make money.

]]> By: chuck7 http://housingdoom.com/2007/03/27/housing-ghosts-past/#comment-4398 chuck7 Tue, 27 Mar 2007 19:33:34 +0000 http://housingdoom.com/2007/03/27/housing-ghosts-past/#comment-4398 Exactly... The big three auto makers can spin the whole ball of wax but the simple truth people don't want to buy their product so the inventory sits. The differnce is the auto makers have tried 0% rates and lower prices rebates the public just became fed up with the bad products and lies at dealerships so they moved on. In housing it is all about price point and what a buyer is willing to pay for a property no matter how much the agents and the sellers try to spin it. Like i pointed out several months ago we sold a condo in a very depressed Denver market in 48 days nobody does that we did why? we took the last sell in the building reduced the price by %5 and had 13 showings and a sold sign. We haven't regreated at all that maybe we could hold out and get more next fall we just saw the reality of the market and got to selling the condo at the market conditions price. Till the public realizes what went on a couple years ago will probally never to that degree and frenzy ever happen again in their lifetime they are going to suffer and get sick about it, it ain't worth it believe me? Exactly… The big three auto makers can spin the whole ball of wax but the simple truth people don’t want to buy their product so the inventory sits. The differnce is the auto makers have tried 0% rates and lower prices rebates the public just became fed up with the bad products and lies at dealerships so they moved on.
In housing it is all about price point and what a buyer is willing to pay for a property no matter how much the agents and the sellers try to spin it. Like i pointed out several months ago we sold a condo in a very depressed Denver market in 48 days nobody does that we did why? we took the last sell in the building reduced the price by %5 and had 13 showings and a sold sign. We haven’t regreated at all that maybe we could hold out and get more next fall we just saw the reality of the market and got to selling the condo at the market conditions price. Till the public realizes what went on a couple years ago will probally never to that degree and frenzy ever happen again in their lifetime they are going to suffer and get sick about it, it ain’t worth it believe me?

]]> By: rogersmith8080 http://housingdoom.com/2007/03/27/housing-ghosts-past/#comment-4397 rogersmith8080 Tue, 27 Mar 2007 18:50:11 +0000 http://housingdoom.com/2007/03/27/housing-ghosts-past/#comment-4397 Sell Denial. Is it really a "Buyers Market"? In a "Buyers Market" sellers have to compeate to sell thier product through incentives and lower prices. We have seen incentives but have NOT seen significantly lower prices. This will become a buyers market, you will see SIGNIFICANT price drops and until you do that inventory is just going to continue to grow. The longer this takes the longer its going to take to correct. Realators do your self a favor and push the lower prices, if you think you can just wait it out and the buyers will come around your dead. Lets make this clear, no matter how you spin it, no matter how you twist and distort the graphs and figures there is one fact that is unavoidable. No matter what you may tell yourselves you can not smoke and mirrors your way around this fact. Intrest rates can fall, employment can drop to 1% and this fact remains: FACT: "There are no buyers left who can or will buy at or above 2005 prices." Employment will not buy your house, an intrest rate is not going to buy your house, NAR is not going to buy your house, the only thing that will buy your house is a BUYER and there arn't any not at 2005 prices. Sell Denial.
Is it really a “Buyers Market”? In a “Buyers Market” sellers have to compeate to sell thier product through incentives and lower prices.

We have seen incentives but have NOT seen significantly lower prices. This will become a buyers market, you will see SIGNIFICANT price drops and until you do that inventory is just going to continue to grow. The longer this takes the longer its going to take to correct.

Realators do your self a favor and push the lower prices, if you think you can just wait it out and the buyers will come around your dead.

Lets make this clear, no matter how you spin it, no matter how you twist and distort the graphs and figures there is one fact that is unavoidable. No matter what you may tell yourselves you can not smoke and mirrors your way around this fact. Intrest rates can fall, employment can drop to 1% and this fact remains:

FACT:
“There are no buyers left who can or will buy at or above 2005 prices.”

Employment will not buy your house, an intrest rate is not going to buy your house, NAR is not going to buy your house, the only thing that will buy your house is a BUYER and there arn’t any not at 2005 prices.

]]> By: chuck7 http://housingdoom.com/2007/03/27/housing-ghosts-past/#comment-4396 chuck7 Tue, 27 Mar 2007 16:56:31 +0000 http://housingdoom.com/2007/03/27/housing-ghosts-past/#comment-4396 Yes in a depress economy or volatile places you must see the forest thru the trees. But what we have in many parts of the country is price denial by sellers. They just can't understand why they aren't going to make a fortune in their real estate venture so they are willing to go down with the ship. This is total foolish thinking, many buyers are out there in a country this size deals are waiting too be made. Sellers if you truly can take the a hit then stop the bellyaching and pay your mortage and property tax, hoa fees sit 5 to 6 yrs and maybe you make a fortune? See how dumb that sounds, reduce your price make a small profit or thank God you can break even, learn a lesson nothing comes easy in life and get to selling your problem and move on in life? Yes in a depress economy or volatile places you must see the forest thru the trees. But what we have in many parts of the country is price denial by sellers. They just can’t understand why they aren’t going to make a fortune in their real estate venture so they are willing to go down with the ship.
This is total foolish thinking, many buyers are out there in a country this size deals are waiting too be made. Sellers if you truly can take the a hit then stop the bellyaching and pay your mortage and property tax, hoa fees sit 5 to 6 yrs and maybe you make a fortune?
See how dumb that sounds, reduce your price make a small profit or thank God you can break even, learn a lesson nothing comes easy in life and get to selling your problem and move on in life?

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