We here at Doom have lamented the spin from the REIC in the U.S. and Canada, but spin seems to be a global, not just a North American phenomenon. New Zealand is a case in point. Kiwis have been experiencing a bubble of their own, but people are starting to get nervous that maybe all is not right with the housing market. [Hat tip to Ken, who keeps me abreast of the New Zealand market!]
From yesterday morning’s Sunday Star Times (Auckland), Mortgagee [Foreclosure] Sales Double:
Real estate agents say mortgagee sales have doubled in the past year as a small but rising number of debt-laden property investors reach crisis point.
Thursday’s interest rate rises, pushing floating mortgage rates to a near decade high of 10.05% and one-year fixed rates as high as 9.05%, are expected to worsen the outlook for over-committed borrowers.
"If mortgagee sales are going up, that can really only mean one thing – people are struggling," said Graham Viall, who oversees national mortgagee sales for Harcourts.
He said Harcourts’ mortgagee sales had doubled from about five per month a year ago to about 10 per month now. About one-third of mortgagee listings were now investment properties.
Viall was not alone in his assessment:
Other agents reported similar trends. At LJ Hooker, auctioneer Keith Niederer said mortgagee sales in Auckland had more than doubled, from up to two per month a year ago to about five per month. At Ray White’s in Auckland, salesman Damian Piggin said he handled two mortgagee sales in Auckland last month, the same as for the whole of last year.
Niederer said some property investors were feeling the pressure from having to refinance borrowings at higher interest rates as fixed mortgages matured.
"It’s going to be interesting times, I think. Just look at the newspapers, it’s mortgagee, mortgagee, mortgagee," he said.
But the biggest mortgagee sales agents in Auckland, Barfoot and Thompson, refused to comment, saying it was "sensitive" information.
Sounds remarkably bearish, doesn’t it? The sources sound knowledgeable, particularly Viall, who oversees the national mortgagee sales for Harcourts. Later Sunday afternoon, Harcourt’s CEO Bryan Thompson weighs in though: [You can check out this article quoting Thompson, or this one. Should he ever care to emigrate to the U.S., he would do well at the NAR.]
Real Estate agents are disputing reports of a doubling in the number of mortgagee sales. Reports out today say the number of properties being auctioned off by the mortgagee have doubled in the last year, suggesting cracks are appearing in the market.
But Harcourts chief Bryan Thomson says he can not see how anyone could reach that conclusion. He says mortgagee sales are only a small part of the market and it is disappointing such an emotional and personal thing has been blown out of proportion.
Mr Thompson says there is no sign of weakness in the property market, and provided business and employment confidence as well as immigration are all strong, New Zealanders need not worry.
I suspect that if Thompson says don’t worry, it’s time to start worrying.









The real estate industry can say what they like to support the property prices but the credit crunch has started to incapacitate most finance companies with one after the other facing short of operational capital. People are now feeling safer to treat cash as king rather than borrowing money to lock in properties. In short I predict median property prices in Auckland to fall as much as NZD5,000 in August 2007 and thereafter most likely a free fall.