Sorry Doomers, what can I say? I was wrong. Unlike a certain ex-chief economist we know, though, I’m going to stand up and admit it. [OK, I’m sitting, but that’s beside the point.]
This is from my November 28th post:
Lereah is correct when stating that there should be a lift to home sales in the first quarter of 2007- home sales are cyclical; there is always a lift to sales in the first quarter.
I was too optimistic in my projections for the Las Vegas market. [It must be a result of my sunny disposition.] 1381 single family homes sold in the month of April– fewer homes than any other month this year– fewer than any month for the past four years. [My available data goes back to January 2003.] Sales were down 40% over last year’s 2,266. [I got the down YOY part right anyway.] And as for that 1Q lift– sales were down 13% from the fourth quarter of 2006. Here’s the graph: [Data from GLVAR]
While sales are tanking, prices are slowly fizzling. The median price for a single family home was $305,000- down 1.6% from last year’s $310,000, and unchanged from March. This figure is not adjusted for inflation, and may be skewed by the mix of houses sold and by seller incentives:
According to the April 20 In Business Las Vegas:
Money Magazine cited a report from Fiserv Lending Solutions that analyzed the 100 largest markets in the country, and it predicted Las Vegas will have the steepest decline in home prices between April 2007 and April 2008.
The projected 8.9 percent drop for Las Vegas follows a 5 percent decline in the last 12 months, the magazine reported. The expected drop for Las Vegas eclipses an 8.8 percent decline predicted for Miami. No other city is expected to have more than a 6 percent decline.
I don’t know if I believe that Las Vegas will see the worst decline in the nation in the next year, but then I’ve always been an optimist.