Back in 2005, with buyers camping out in front of new developments, agents were frequently told they were superfluous. My how times have changed- take for example this invitation from D.R. Horton: [Hat tip L!]
Given the distance most agents will have to drive to make it to this party- DR Horton is liable to have to come across with an even more valuable incentive- gas money.
Northern Virginia Housing Bubble Fallout
Ohio Fraudclosure
Bubble Meter
UK House Bubble
Mish's Global Economic Analysis
Breaking News Relevant Articles© Copyright 2012 Housing Doom | Copyright© 2011, AuthentiCraft, Inc.
Excerpt, Barron’s Online May 17, 2007.
Buffett declares Housing Bust Over, Time to get back into Real Esate.
Housing bust? I think not says the most influential value investor in U.S. history. “I think the housing bubble is the most overdone non event of this century, the exact opposite of what I thought during the dot com boom. The media has scared the wits out of people” claims the oracle of Omaha in a rare interview with CNBC’s Maria Bartiromo on Wednesday at the Friar’s Club of Manhattan. “I’m a value oriented investor and I like tangible assets, and I don’t see what all the fuss is about. For most people, their house is the best investment they will make in their life. In my humble opinion, now is as good of time as any for the typical American to invest in a home if they want to, interest rates are near all time lows, and there are some great values out there.”……..
Maybe Dr. B is right….
http://drbrightside.blogspot.com/
n-fo-
I’m afraid you might find us a bit bearish around here- Buffet’s done well in stocks, but he doesn’t always bat 1000.
There are certainly opportunities out there, but it’s a risky market for most of us.
I think Mr. Berkshire Hathaway may be retiring for a reason. Any reasoned analysis of what has happened over the last few years would come to the conclusion that there is a bubble. Nad that a correction is in order.
I think the oracle is losing his marbles. Soon he will be hiding his own Easter eggs!
Keep in mind Berkshire Hathaway owns Century 21, so the old geezer definitely wants the buyers to come back into the market.
Of course, he is partially right. In some parts of the country RE may be a great value, but not in regions of overzealous speculation of the last few years.
I visited Dr. Brightside’s blog.
Wow! It’s like reading NAR press releases …all blue skies and Prozac.
Even Babe Ruth strikes out.
I hear sunshine and moonbeams but no explanations for serious troubles down the road.
1) $400,000,000,000.00 in mortgages reset in August/September and everyone even the NAR expects this to result in more foreclosures.
2) Foreclosures are at all time highs last month and still increasing, those homes will be on the market in 6~9 months from now.
3) Inventory is at the highest levels ever recorded in some cities and it continues to grow with no sign of reducing. Items 1 & 2 will just hurt this more.
4) Toll Brothers numbers were in the dumps and subprime only makes up less than 2% of their clients. Other home builders with larger percentage of subprime borrowers are not post their number. Their numbers are defiantly not better than expected and will almost certainly be lower than expected.
5) Layoff’s left and right in the subprime market at least for now is putting thousands out of work, since this industry is never going to return to what it was all these people need to be retrained which could take years for them to generate the same income they once did, assuming they ever do.
6) Retail crashing, large retail stores (Wal-Mart, Home Depot) are now posting larger losses than expected in just Q1. Retail will almost certainly end the year lower than expected.
7) Spring housing season is a bust this will unfold into summer as low new home sales in spring result in more existing home sales in summer.
Buffet only sees the tangible what he fails to grasp is a person who is upside down on a house loan is in worst shape then someone who’s stock tanked and is worth $0. You can NOT go lower then $0 with stock no matter how bad the market gets. With a home you can always find yourself further and further upside down. People who are upside down are trapped in their home effectively and are not economically mobile to pursue opportunities in other areas. These people are also trapped with a loan that gets worst over time continually eating into their discretionary income assuming they are lucky enough to have any. Please Mr. Buffet, I want to be a Billionaire like you one day tell me what I’m missing, what statistic or economic force in play is going to make all this better? Don’t spout off NAR talking points with no actual data or very thin data that shows an increase that is smaller than the margin of error.
Don’t ya love these builders? Not long ago they quit co-broking with Realtors. Now they wanna give them a free tv. As a broker, this is my third crash. One of my bellwethers of an impending crash is when builders quit co-broking with Realtors. To me, that signals the absolute top of the market.
I too am a broker and I find it remarkable that the builders, who once minted money, are now chasing after my business adding bonuses to a full commission from the once 1.5% annoyance fee they paid us back in 2005.
With regards to Buffett one must remember that his time horizon is generally years and sometimes decades. Buffett is right that now is as good a time as any to buy a HOME providing that your intentions are to stay in the home for a longer period than most people typically do. One also needs to consider the rents in your area verses the cost of ownership. If I were looking to relocate to Phoenix I would be a renter until the leveraged purchase price came down into a value that approximates rents. It looks like phoenix has a 40% correction before I would be a buyer there. One thing we all must be aware of is the inflation of rents. I think in the immediate future rents may back off a little from current prices but in the next decade we will see a doubling of rents….at leaste. So, maybe now isn’t a bad time to buy.
As far as investment properties are concerned purchasing now is suicide. I have not looked at a deal in my area that works in 3 years, yet the “investors” are buying like the money was’nt theirs….waite…er, uhhhh….LOL
I work in real estate development in Southern California. I have been doing some competitive shopping and I have found there is one bright spot, the under $250,000 market in the High desert. Builders offering product below $200K have 11 sales per week. The buyer profile are current renters from all over southern california. I have also heard stories of hispanic families throwing down cash and using the good credit of a family member to buy houses in the $250K range. The rate of hispanic immigration isn’t going down, especially with the impending amnesty legislation. Over the next 2-3 years, builders will stay solvent meeting the needs of these buyers.