Prior to the release of the NAR’s Pending Home Sales Report this morning, Yahoo Finance said optimistically:
A real estate trade group will release data Friday that is expected to show a slight increase in pending sales of existing homes for April.
If the data from the National Association of Realtors reveals what analysts predict, it could be an indication that sellers have lowered prices enough to cause a pickup in sales. Analysts expect, on average, a month-to-month gain of 0.4 percent for April, according to Briefing.com.
The reality was a little gloomier when the numbers came out:
An index of pending sales of existing homes in the U.S. unexpectedly fell to the lowest level in more than four years in April, a further sign the real-estate slump may linger.
The index of signed purchase agreements, or pending home resales, fell 3.2 percent to 101.4 [MOM], the lowest since February 2003, after a revised 4.5 percent decline in March [MOM], the National Association of Realtors said today in Washington. The index was down 10.2 percent from April 2006.
Lawrence Yun, NAR Senior Economist is filling in for the departing David Lereah as Chief Cheerleader for this report:
It looks like we may be leaving a period of market disruptions, and for the past two months the pending home sales index has been similar in year-ago comparisons, which means home sales might ease but should be fairly stable in the months ahead.
Here’s the fairly stable graph:
As for Yun’s similar year-ago comparisons, April’s numbers were down 10.2%, when March’s numbers were down 10.0%". I would define that trend as continues to tank rather than fairly stable.
To the NAR: ENOUGH with the stabilization thing already. You may only release a couple of data points at a time, but we’ve got your graph. Allow me to remind you what Boss Tweed of Tammany Hall fame is reported to have said when he found himself being skewered in the political cartoons of Thomas Nast:
Stop them d–n pictures. I don’t care so much what the papers write about me. My constituents can’t read. But, d–n it, they can see pictures.
We can see the picture Mr. Yun- and it doesn’t look stable.
With every passing optimistic forecast these people lose more of their remaining credibility.
The blue skiers are seriously deluded.
NVMike-
I don’t know how in the world I could write the post that starts, I see housing improving this summer because… I just don’t see ANY data that supports that thesis. That doesn’t seem to stop the NAR however.
It’s not going to help their case much to “reassign” Lereah and replace him with a clone.
Based upon a sampling of 4 large MLS systems it appears that May will be worse than April. Additionally, May sales are in the tank too. Down over 40% in Central and South Florida from a year ago! Ouch.
It is of interest to note that “clean” data from the MLSs is available about a week into a new month yet it takes NAR another 3 weeks to release the data. Hmmm.
Tobby-
I don’t have the final numbers for yet, but it looks like Phoenix will be up a few points MOM, but down significantly YOY- with better than a nine month supply.
Yun needs to learn the difference between stable and continues to deteriorate.
Estate agents believe in fantasy, lies, and deceit. How do you think they make their money? I bought my home in 2003, for a fair price. I constantly have agents asking if I want to sell, as I’d be one of the few who actually stood to gain. However, this will require actually selling the place. When asked how long that would take, the average figure for my neighbourhood is about 180 days. Of course, they say this is improving. Until the numbers prove their point, it’s all hot air. I told them to come back when I can sell for $1 Million nett. That’ll be in about 2027