Phoenix Area Foreclosures Spiking

And the graph of the net result:

The delay between NOTs and cancellations causes current foreclosure statistics to be understated, as sufficient time has not elapsed for the cancellations to be recorded.  Cancellations in the early part of the year would be overstated, as many of those would be for homes that entered preforeclosure in 2006.  As NOTs are outstripping cancellations, it is my belief then that the net figure will be understated for 2007.  In addition, the number of properties going into preforeclosure has continued to accelerate.  I expect that by the end of the year, 2007 will look even worse than it does now.

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10 Comments for this entry

  1. metroplexual says:
    June 11, 2007 at 8:34 AM

    It would be nice to see how the forclosures correlate with the ARM resets.

    http://bp0.blogger.com/_wFWqWIH-WFU/Rme3gnf5u-I/AAAAAAAABJ8/g0erkMmkqe0/s1600-h/136440158-O.png

  2. aaaaudio says:
    June 11, 2007 at 10:16 AM

    Metro,
    from what I gather of your graph Set, Aug looks to be a huge month in Subprime and option arm resets this year? I have heard this from a number of sources. I think this will drive the foreclosures right through the roof. This is a nationwide graph? Can you pull an AZ graph? or is it an AZ graph?

  3. metroplexual says:
    June 11, 2007 at 10:27 AM

    That is the national picture, however I have seen on other sites/blogs regional data for the IO and ARM data and I seem to recall that San Diego, LV and Phoenix have a disproportionate amount of these toxic loans.

  4. twist says:
    June 11, 2007 at 10:34 AM

    Aaaaudio, Metro-

    This would make you think Phoenix would fare worse than the national average:

  5. metroplexual says:
    June 11, 2007 at 10:54 AM

    I forgot about that one. Funny how ATL is the worst off and they had very little runup.

  6. metroplexual says:
    June 11, 2007 at 10:56 AM

    Mind you that this map is of IO lowns and not ARM.

  7. twist says:
    June 11, 2007 at 11:04 AM

    Metro-

    Thanks for pointing that out- I seem to remember seeing an ARM map, and the distribution was extremely similar to this one. I can’t seem to run it down at the moment, hence my closest substitute.

  8. dustdevil says:
    June 11, 2007 at 12:52 PM

    Just don’t post this stuff on the RE blogs for AZ… they will delete it with reckless abandon. I was even super polite…

  9. metroplexual says:
    June 11, 2007 at 1:02 PM

    The map of misery!

    http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6089/1833/1600/map_of_misery.1.jpg

  10. aaaaudio says:
    June 12, 2007 at 9:34 AM

    Thank you both for your posts. That is really interesting stuff.

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