Housing Doom Housing Bubble Blog

A nation that forgets its past is doomed to repeat it. - Churchill

June 15th, 2007

Core Foreclosure Rate

Today seems to be a good day to invoke a blogger’s privilege to just rant. I haven’t been this angry about core spin since James Pethokoukis’ pathetic attempt last January to suggest retail sales were "surprisingly strong" (if you only ignored autos, gasoline, and building materials). The Mother of All Core Spins [1] got so out of control today that Bloomberg editors had to remove the key information from their headline — the bare fact was just too hot. Still, the MSM is swallowing the spin worldwide.[2]

Meanwhile, and this is where I really lost it, BusinessWeek’s Maya Roney asserted [3] that US foreclosures don’t really look so bad if California, Florida, Nevada, Arizona, Michigan, Indiana and Ohio are excluded from the dataset! Sorry, Twist, looks like Phoenix doesn’t count for America’s New Core Foreclosure Rate Index. Jeesh. More blood pressure boost is available from Peter Coy’s aptly titled new blog post.[4]

But looking on the bright side, and according to my back-of-the-envelope calculation, those states represent 145 electoral votes, a whopping 27%. Win in America’s 7 non-core foreclosure states, and you’re more than halfway home in the 2008 election.

Come on now, MSM. So you can stop with the core spin already. Just report the actual numbers — we can deal with the truth.

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June 15th, 2007

Op-Ed Friday: We’re Still Here

I loved this comment from the Toll Brother’s board at Yahoo Finance from pfolioman:

Certainly there can’t be anymore "RE (dragging down the USA’s economy) Doomsdayers" out there anymore.

Roubini had a little following for a while. But as I pointed out at the time, those types of economic commentators pop up as contrarian indicators. However, he’s been proven wrong long ago…I don’t think anyone is seriously debating his theories anymore. The economic calamity due to an imaginary RE correction, "domino effect" just didn’t happen as he had theorized…I’m puzzled why anyone would still not see that.

Sorry pfolioman- we’re still here- and still looking for Doomers thoughts, links, ideas and comments.
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June 15th, 2007

Where’s the Risk? Whalen Presentation Curiously Timely

AEI’s March 28, 2007 Subprime Seminar - VIII

This unofficial transcript of Chris Whalen’s talk given at AEI’s March 28th seminar on the Subprime Mortgage Crisis [1] completes Doom’s effort as far as the main presentations go. There remains a four minute discussion among the panel members and a couple of longish sections of the Q&A to finish the job.

Whelan’s words were surprisingly timely, in fact almost prescient, as related in yesterday’s post that noted the relationship between his concerns in late March and the present story about the big Bear bond sale.[2] [3]

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