The NAR reminds me of an old Doonesbury cartoon I saw years ago. It showed an RJ Reynolds executive interviewing a prospective employee- an attorney they wanted to hire. They went down his credentials, which were impressive, then the executive said, “Now we have this one last little test. I need you to say with a straight face, “I believe that cigarettes aren’t bad for you.”

The lawyer couldn’t do it, and the executive said, “Next!”

It sounds like Gaylord could pass the test.

Looks like the REIC can just haul back and spew as long as newspaper editors have those fat RE ad budgets in the back of their minds. No critical thinking here

“Nation’s head Realtor says market ‘isn’t down’ “, by Don Jergler, Long Beach Press Telegram, July 16, 2007.

Don’t try to tell Dick Gaylord it’s a down housing market, or that there’s a housing slump – and don’t dare mention the word “bubble.”

The congenial Long Beach man, who will assume the role as the nation’s head Realtor next year, will argue vehemently that the market “isn’t down but just returning to normal.”

He has more than 30 years experience, and now the country’s largest trade organization, to back him up.

“I don’t know that there’s ever been a bad time to buy,” Gaylord said. “If people will hold on, there’s no bad time to buy in real estate.”

Gaylord was speaking last week to reporters at a leadership retreat at the Ritz-Carlton Laguna Niguel in Dana Point, where he spent several days with Chicago-based NAR’s new leadership team.

– The Judge

Butler lost me when he called the market “stable.” It might be “status quo” at the moment, but “stable”?

A 10% YOY decline in housing prices is a massive drop – especially for all of those people calling for modest gains or modest losses. 10% in a single year is not a modest loss.

I think “geopolitical” might be a little better excuse than weather- it’s not as seasonal.

Thanks for the great work, Twist! God bless!

In Colorado Springs we have roughly 450000 sheople and 6800 houses for sale. Phoenix area has roughly 4500000 and about 60000 homes for sale. I went through my old neighborhood yesterday and fools I mean builders are doing 1500000 spec houses HELLOOOOOOO. My litmus test of a neighborhood is to count the seconds between realestate signs at 30 MPH 9 seconds was the average for not being able to see one. Used to be 25 seconds. Its really twisty up there and you can rarely see more than 5- 10 houses at a time. The Dr. I worked with always told me that neighborhood was different and houses would only go up because it was in the mountains. Well it ain’t different and it never is.

sequoia 512

As if it wasn’t hot in Las Vegas and Phoenix when people were standing in line for house lotteries at new developments. I guess the REIC slobs realized how thin the weather excuse was wearing. But “geopolitical risk,” — wow, that’s a serious threat that no blogger would dare discount!!

– The Judge

Other than the ramifications of abandoning Israel (see Genesis 12:3)…
I don’t know what else could have as adverse or wide reaching effect on RE as a worthless dollar.

It is, but in reviewing his reports when inventory was tight, he didn’t mention it then either.

I can’t see leaving supply out of a market report, but as you can see Butler and I don’t exactly see eye to eye on how the Phoenix report ought to be done. : )

Yes, but that seems sort of convenient for this purposes, huh?

That’s one of my peeves as well. You can’t really say how well sales are going if you don’t know the total available for sale. Butler says he doesn’t use MLS data though, that his info comes from recorded sales, so perhaps that’s why he doesn’t mention it. It seems more relevant to me than “geopolitical risks.”

I know it’s been said lots of times, but perhaps different verbage would be of assistance to somebody, so here goes:

There are 3 main ingredients to the sale of RE.

1. The Person
2. The Property
3. The Price

If you have a lot of (your own) money, you can do whatever you want with whatever property you want at whatever price you want.

The organizations that do have a lot of money and loan it out on houses are now tightening up the flow through “lending guidelines.”

If you want THEIR money, you need to change either:

1. The income, debt level, credit rating or down payment (commitment) of the Person.
2. The value of the Property.
3. The Price.

Regardless of what so many people seem to be indicating with their “sticky” listing prices and arrogant dismissal of “low ball offers,” the easiest thing to change, and change quickly, is the PRICE!!

I would implore Mr. Butler, and the RE spokespeople in general, to pick just one drum to beat.

If they want to report more sales, tell people to drop the prices quickly so more lenders will want to risk on that property at that price to that person.

If they want high (median) prices, then get ready for less and less sales.

Of course, we could always just let people with no down payment, median income, high debts, and poor credit keep making $ 300,000 to $ 500,000 promises they can’t keep and call that “good.”

It’s worked so well so far!?!?!?!?!

Oh, and congrats to Richcinaz for the patience to wait.