The Crack of Doom – Week of July 30, 2007

Tom Peters said, "If you’re not confused, you’re not paying attention." If he hadn’t already thought of that one, somebody commenting on the markets last week could have had a first. Still, we’re heading into August, when the Wall Street A-team heads for the beach and the hills, come what may. This morning’s calm could well be the calm before the calm.

Whether the markets are only repricing risk, or repricing real assets, let us know what’s what. Just fire your finds into the Reply box from your laptop by the pool, and then get back to something important — like a good mystery novel and a cool drink :)

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21 Comments for this entry

  1. wcvarones says:
    July 30, 2007 at 6:28 AM

    Updated story of a San Francisco MBA student who thinks it’s a good idea to pay $714,000 for a 1-bedroom condo:

    http://wcvarones.blogspot.com/2007/07/poor-reflection-on-usf-mba-program.html

  2. John M. says:
    July 30, 2007 at 8:06 AM

    This story encapsulates the new “nothing real is going on, guys” mantra very nicely (and hits some other themes, AHM & the curious lack of customary big Monday M&A announcements).

    “Stocks flat, but volatility running high”, by Jennifer Coogan, Reuters (UK), July 30, 2007.

    “We have certainly disturbed investor psychology with talk of problems in the subprime market and the inability to finance takeovers,” said Al Kugel, chief investment strategist at Atlantic Trust in Chicago. “I don’t think it will affect the general economy, but it’s giving people pause when it comes to buying stocks.”

  3. metroplexual says:
    July 30, 2007 at 10:36 AM

    Nothing makes sense to me anymore. Dotcom blowup did but everything else since has been unreal. I think a reality check is long overdue, it is just that when the people deny reality for so long, the downside has a way of getting amplified. I am not looking forward to the emperor’s clothes ending coming soon.

  4. John M. says:
    July 30, 2007 at 10:49 AM

    Metro -

    Citadel seems to be trying to save Sowood today. That might expose at least some of the truth (among other things we’re talking about some of the endowment fund for Harvard)

  5. metroplexual says:
    July 30, 2007 at 11:03 AM

    Youch, so much for that free ride I was hoping for, fo my daughter!

  6. jan-martin feddersen says:
    July 30, 2007 at 11:24 PM

    Moin,

    I hope i get through to post the links.

    ATA Truck Tonnage index fell Another 0.1 percent in June

    http://www.truckline.com/NR/exeres/F60396F7-098C-47DE-89C4-5BE5C1E9E82A.htm

  7. jan-martin feddersen says:
    July 31, 2007 at 12:55 AM

    A Closer Look at New Home Sales / Paper Money

    http://paper-money.blogspot.com/2007/07/closer-look-at-new-home-sales.html

  8. jan-martin feddersen says:
    July 31, 2007 at 2:21 AM

    Rubin Should Teach Paulson Secret PPT Handshake: Caroline Baum

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=a87VERwuZP8c&refer=home

  9. jan-martin feddersen says:
    July 31, 2007 at 2:33 AM

    PMI Group sees U.S. mortgage insurance ops loss $450m-$550m

    http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/pmi-group-sees-us-mortgage/story.aspx?guid=%7B354F024D%2DE5CB%2D4151%2DA0B1%2D9E2A881687C2%7D

  10. jan-martin feddersen says:
    July 31, 2007 at 2:57 AM

    Central bank to tighten real estate credit / China

    http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/bizchina/2007-07/31/content_6004965.htm

  11. jan-martin feddersen says:
    July 31, 2007 at 2:57 AM

    Money flows from stocks to property / China

    http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/bizchina/2007-07/31/content_6004519.htm

  12. John M. says:
    July 31, 2007 at 5:08 AM

    twist -

    Who is Andrew Johnson and where have all his experts been hiding?

    “Foreclosures soar in Arizona: Financing deals now haunt borrowers, but ‘correction’ no surprise to experts”, by Andrew Johnson, Arizona Republic, July 31, 2007.

    Many experts say the increase in foreclosures was not unexpected. During the heyday of the 2004 and 2005 housing boom, people who normally wouldn’t have purchased a home were able to do so, thanks to extraordinarily low interest rates and specialty financing deals like adjustable rate and subprime mortgages.

    Now, those factors have come back to haunt borrowers. Many are facing higher payments or balloon payments as part of their financing terms, and have been unable to refinance or sell because of the slumping market. The result? Poor credit scores for overextended homeowners and depressed property values in neighborhoods with large pockets of foreclosed homes.

    While most experts agree the rising number of foreclosures signals a return to normalcy both locally and nationally, it still can have a very negative impact on neighborhoods.

    “If you go into a neighborhood and there’s a lot of foreclosed properties, they’re empty, you don’t know who’s going to buy them, they’re probably not being maintained at the moment,” said Jay Butler, director of realty studies at Arizona State University’s Morrison School of Management and Agribusiness.

  13. jan-martin feddersen says:
    July 31, 2007 at 5:15 AM

    C-Bass Subprime Venture in Talks With Investors to Ensure Funds

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=akcDlVbSj1IM&refer=home

  14. NVmike says:
    July 31, 2007 at 1:27 PM

    AHM is having a bad day.

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=AHM&t=3m&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=

  15. jan-martin feddersen says:
    July 31, 2007 at 11:07 PM

    Credit crunch refocusing investors on fundamentals

    http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/credit-crunch-seen-refocusing-stock/story.aspx?guid=%7B17BC1134%2D034A%2D416C%2DAB51%2D77B98B0A21B9%7D

  16. jan-martin feddersen says:
    August 1, 2007 at 12:36 AM

    Macquarie’s Fortress Funds Fall Amid Subprime Rout

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=amA9XoQtg_yY&refer=home

  17. jan-martin feddersen says:
    August 1, 2007 at 2:57 AM

    Going With The Flow?

    http://www.safehaven.com/article-8087.htm

  18. jan-martin feddersen says:
    August 1, 2007 at 3:48 AM

    Subprime Defaults Blamed for Corporate America Earning Setbacks

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=avZr736O8xUw&refer=home

  19. jan-martin feddersen says:
    August 1, 2007 at 5:39 AM

    ADP shows private-sector job growth of 48,000 in July

    http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/adp-shows-private-sector-job-growth/story.aspx?guid=%7B1C94511A%2D7931%2D44B4%2D901B%2D62965C56F736%7D

  20. John M. says:
    August 1, 2007 at 6:20 AM

    Jan-Martin -

    The rest of the world seems to have freaked out over Oddo (France) and Macquarie (Australia), not to mention AHM, so that oversees markets are down a couple of percent, and the carry trade even seems to be unwinding. If I recall correctly, the first of the month is when a lot of hedgies report. Notwithstanding Paulson talking of containment, is today the day the U.S. markets price in the bulk of the remaining subprime damage?

  21. jan-martin feddersen says:
    August 2, 2007 at 7:58 AM

    Accredited Home Says Weak Mortgage Market May Force Bankruptcy

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a9j43hcBNvvE&refer=home

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