Housing Doom Housing Bubble Blog

A nation that forgets its past is doomed to repeat it. - Churchill

August 31st, 2007

The Changing Face of Foreclosure

When you hear the term "foreclosure property," what comes to mind?  A dilapidated crack house in a marginal neighborhood?  If it is, be prepared to change your perceptions, because the face of foreclosure is changing.  It’s affecting upscale homes and neighborhoods to the detriment of their neighbors.  According to Wednesday’s Los Angeles Times: [Thank you L!]

Houses abandoned to foreclosure are beginning to breed trouble, adding neighbors to the growing ranks of victims.

Stagnant swimming pools spawn mosquitoes, which can carry the potentially deadly West Nile virus. Empty rooms lure squatters and vandals. And brown lawns and dead vegetation are creating eyesores in well-tended neighborhoods.

 

Here’s a great example from my hometown of Gilbert, AZ.  There’s a upscale neighborhood called Chaparral Estates West just off of Williams Field Rd.  The homes were built by Toll Brothers, and the neighborhood is well groomed, [Some properties in here have sold for over $1 million] with the exception of this property on Clifton Court:

 

Although the lawn is currently dead, on closer inspection the sod squares are still visible- whatever went wrong, went wrong fast.  That’s a half finished fountain in the front yard by the way, and there’s an enormous half finished pool in the back yard to go with it:

Read the rest of this entry »

August 31st, 2007

Op-Ed Friday: It’s Too Darn Hot

It’s Op-Ed Friday, and today’s likely to be a big news day.  President Bush is scheduled to discuss his subprime initiative this morning and Chairman Bernanke’s speech this morning will be micro-analyzed for any hint of the direction of interest rates.

You can count on Twist to be inside with the AC cranked up and watching it all unfold, as it’s too darn hot to get out and do anything else:

Phoenix on Thursday had a high temperature of 111 degrees Fahrenheit, [44C] extending the record broken on Wednesday of 29 days with at least 110 [43C] degrees F in a calendar year, said meteorologist Keith Kincaid of the National Weather Service.

We’re expecting another 110F/43C day again today. 

We’d love to hear your stories, finds, links, whatever though- and I’ll check them out just as soon as my keyboard is cool enough to touch.

Read the rest of this entry »

August 30th, 2007

President Bush Has a Solution for Subprime?

Reuters is reporting this evening:

WASHINGTON, Aug 30 (Reuters) - President George W. Bush will outline reforms on Friday intended to help homeowners with subprime mortgages avoid default, a senior U.S. administration official said on Thursday.

"He will also discuss reform efforts to prevent these kinds of problems from arising in the future," the official told Reuters on condition of anonymity.

Read the rest of this entry »

August 30th, 2007

Liquidity Crisis- It’s Not Just For Mortgages

Wow- if there is anyone left who thinks that what happens in housing stays in housing, here’s Forbes magazine on the potential impact of the current credit crisis on [of all things] NFL football: [The video shows up after you hit "play."]

 

 

 

 

 

Read the rest of this entry »

August 30th, 2007

I’ve Changed My Mind- Can We Have Lereah Back?

Mom always said to be careful what you wish for;  I guess I should have listened.  Month after month, I listened to Lereah’s spin, and wondered why on earth the NAR didn’t replace him.  I figured anybody, ANYBODY had to be better….

Now we have Lawrence Yun, and I’ve got to admit, he’s got me longing for the good old days when the spin had to at least have a finger or toe anchored in reality.

For your reading "pleasure," here’s an excerpt from Yun’s housing predictions from September’s Realtor magazine. WARNING:  Do not attempt to read if you suffer from vertigo:

Predictions are always risky, but I’m going out on a limb to say existing-home sales will improve markedly by the fourth quarter. Here’s why:

  • Pent-up demand. The country has added nearly 4 million jobs since home sales started cooling in mid-2005, and the typical worker’s wages have risen 7 percent, leading to a $1.35 trillion rise in aggregate national income. At the same time, wealth has grown significantly, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average hovering at record highs. Indeed, accumulated household wealth as of the first quarter was at a record $56.2 trillion. So, if you’re wondering if people have the means to purchase, they do.
  • Delayed household formation. The number of households typically grows by up to 1.5 million a year, but in the first quarter, the year-over-year figure was only half a million. That weak performance suggests people are holding back because of uncertainty over the future, a trend that fuels pent-up demand.
  • Rising rents. With renters hesitating to buy, landlords are raising rents. Average rents rose 8 percent in the past two years. As renters start feeling squeezed, ownership will look increasingly good.
  • Condos make modest gains. The condo market has outperformed the single-family market in sales and price changes since early this year. Single-family homes could follow suit.

I’ll spare you his other points- follow the link if you’ve got a strong constitution.  Here’s Yun’s conclusion:

Read the rest of this entry »

August 29th, 2007

Ginnie Mae Eliminates $417,000 cap on Veteran’s Mortgages

Reading this on Ginnie Mae today, I have to wonder if other GSEs will follow suit for other programs:

The Government National Mortgage Association, known as Ginnie Mae, is eliminating the $417,000 cap on mortgages guaranteed by the Department of Veterans Affairs that are bundled together as securities and backed in turn by Ginnie Mae.

The change takes effect Sept. 1, Ginnie Mae Executive Vice President Michael Frenz said in a memorandum Monday to participants in the agency’s program. That means Ginnie Mae will accept as collateral mortgage loans exceeding $417,000 that are guaranteed by Veterans Affairs. Those VA-backed loans represent about a third of the securities issued by Ginnie Mae, which is part of the Department of Housing and Urban Development.

Frenz said in the memo that Ginnie Mae will continue to require that the borrower’s downpayment plus the amount of the VA guaranty be equal to at least 25 percent of the purchase price or the home’s value, whichever is less.

I wouldn’t think this would have much of an impact on the market unless other agencies followed suit:

Read the rest of this entry »

August 29th, 2007

It Looks Like Someone Is Being Ripped Off- The Question is Who

SteveC sent me the following, and has graciously given me his permission to share it:

About 4 months ago a home came on the market very close to the place where we stable our horses. In fact, we ride past it every day.

[This is the listing- t.]

I did my due diligence and looked up the recorded documents. A fellow bought the home from his brother for $200,000 on a new loan. Within a very short period of time, he refinanced as an owner occupant with a first and second totaling $550,000. I am not sure he ever occupied the property. He took his cash and walked.

Read the rest of this entry »

August 28th, 2007

What will finally put a stake through the heart of this mentality?

There’s been a lot of finger pointing lately about who’s to blame for the housing fiasco.  When, and if, an accounting is ever reasoned out, the following attitude has got to be placed near the top of the list of "Reasons Why This Happened": [Hat tip to "bkozak33" of Broker Outpost- I’ve edited just a bit.]

My Realtor gave me a contract for a lady to buy a home for $300K. I got her aproved at a 7.25 interest only payment- with taxes and insurance $2,500.00.

She told me all she can afford is $1,800.00/month.  I told her that is the best I can do, and that "I won’t continue this loan, because I know, and you know, you can’t afford it."

She called me back and says that she want to go ahead any way, and that she would refi in six months. I told her that she won’t do much better than a 7.25 par rate, and that the house she is buying is too expensive, and it’s not the rate. She then told me she will just go to a diffent broker and get it done. i wished her luck.

This lady is staring at foreclosure, and is running full speed at it, with eyes wide open. Oh well.

 

Read the rest of this entry »

August 27th, 2007

Sen. Schumer- “You can’t expect average folks to read the fine print and understand”

OK Doomers, is anyone else incensed by this comment by Senator Schumer today?  Schumer, discussing his 3-step plan to address rising foreclosures said:

There’s a lot of deception that goes on and you can’t expect average folks to read the fine print and understand. It’s up to the mortgage broker. It’s up to the lender to tell them what is wrong.

I’m sorry Senator, but I couldn’t disagree more.  I can see the benefit of having the fine print written more clearly, or perhaps people should be encouraged to avail themselves of legal counsel more often.  However, what borrowers really need is for their parents to do like mine did and teach them, "DON’T SIGN ANYTHING YOU DON’T UNDERSTAND."

Read the rest of this entry »

August 27th, 2007

NAR: “Home Sales Probably Would Be Rising Except…”

If I were ever stuck somewhere like a prisoner of war camp, I think I would want to be stuck there with Lawrence Yun, chief economist of the National Association of Realtors.  He seems to be able to find the bright side of anything.  Look at the difference in these two approaches to July’s Existing Home Sales Report.  From CNBC:

 

Sales of existing homes dropped for a fifth straight month in July, falling to the slowest pace in nearly five years, while home prices fell for a record 12th consecutive month.

The National Association of Realtors reported that sales of existing homes dipped by 0.2 percent last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.75 million units.

 

Here’s Yun’s take on this:

Home sales probably would be rising in the absence of the mortgage liquidity issues of the past two months," he said.  "Some buyers with contracts have been scrambling when loan commitments did not materialize at the last moment, while other potential buyers are simply waiting for the mortgage market to stabilize.

His take is surprising, given that most analysts this morning have been pointing out that July’s numbers were in fact "pre-credit seizure," and that it was their belief that sales would continue to deteriorate. 

 

While the month-to-month decline was modest, the year-over-year decline was 9.2%- in keeping with the declines of recent months:

Read the rest of this entry »