Many thanks to M for our early sales preview for Phoenix home sales.
According to ARMLS this morning, sales and listings for July were as follows:
Active 54,227
Under Contract 5,399
Sold 4,686
Remember that agents have a couple of days to get their sales in, so it is expected that the sales figure will creep up slightly. Also recent difficulties in the mortgage market may increase the percentage of pendings not closing, which may affect future sales.
According to ARMLS, 6093 properties sold in April of last year, so July 2007 sales will probably end up lower by around 20% YOY. This probably will be the slowest July since 2001, when 5638 homes sold. [The earliest year for which I have data.] 5439 properties sold in June 2007, so it looks like the MOM decline could be significant as well.
What can I say folks? The Phoenix market is lousy, and looks to continue its downward slide through the rest of the year.
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“Also recent difficulties in the mortgage market may increase the percentage of pendings not closing, which may affect future sales”
You hit the nail on the head. In my experience contracts are having a difficult time closing and are being extended repeatedly (what else are sellers going to do, say no, the contract is off?). This is pushing UP the pending home sales statistic which the corrupt NAR touted this morning as a positive sign. The real test is what is closing and the early signs for July suggests that sales will be 10 to 15 percent less than June.
Speaking of lousy things in July, here’s my latest graph of Metro Phoenix trustee sales notices.
July sales significantly lower than June. Spin that, Brownie. (RL Brown)
Some suggestions:
1) Greg Swann’s squirrely face next to his Republic columns has driven the few remaining buyers back to the Midwest.
2) Who knew July would be so hot in Phoenix?