Every month the National Association of Realtors puts out their U.S. Economic Outlook. It’s a cheerful, upbeat report that would make Goldilocks proud. When the NAR releases this report every month, they conveniently use the same URL, and do not archive their predictions. [Almost as if they worry that someone might look back and check their performance.]
The NAR may not archive these forecast, but I’ve been plugging them into Excel monthly . [We wouldn't want them to get lost!] While I missed July, I have graphed here their year-over-year price projections since April, and I spotted an interesting trend:
While their expectations for future growth seem to be moderating somewhat, somehow, it’s always uphill from here.
According to Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the NAR in his press release today:
With the population growing, the demand for homes isn’t going away- it’s just being delayed.
I suspect if we check next month, demand will be "delayed" once again.
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Interesting to note that even with YumYum Yun’s optimistic projections that the YOY appreciation rate for 2008 is still below the inflation rate.
Tobby-
Sobering when you consider that this is the fantasy scenario, isn’t it?
Yes and while I wish that there would be some appreciation in the part of the country I find myself in, I cannot believe that the 85254 zip code I left 2 years ago due to a job transfer is STILL showing home prices more than double what they were 3 to 4 years ago in most cases.
The sellers in that area must get a warm fuzzy feeling from the NAR- at least the few that follow it.
I wonder if that feeling will continue to translate into outrageous prices that they will refuse to lower.
Twist, you are truly evil to use the NAR’s own reports against them!
Pay no attention to what we predicted last month, or the month before that, or the month….
After all, are you going to trust the NAR or your lying eyes? LOL
– The Judge
Judge – we walk by faith and NOT by sight.
(just not faith in the NAR)
sorry… I just couldn’t resist that one!
BTW: What happened to the signature line? It is classic!
(especially since you’re taking Twist to task for using NAR words against them… perhaps hypocritical!?!?!)
It’s pretty obvious that your tag line is NOT common knowledge to Sellers or the NAR, so I implore you… Don’t turn off the lamp at the lighthouse!!
Warn those with eyes to see & ears to hear!!
(all in fun!)