So, here we are on the last week before Labor Day. Let’s hope both Buffy and Bubba finally get to the beach, turn off their blackberry and portable TV, and forget about the markets for a while. It has truly been an amazing summer.
That ABCP acronym just came out of nowhere. What’s next in line to emerge from the alphabet soup? Day or night, whenever you spot the next incoming, just whisper it into Igor’s ear over at the Reply box. Even if it’s just evidence the markets are genuinely calming down.
Mish's Global Economic Analysis
Northern Virginia Housing Bubble Fallout
Ohio Fraudclosure
Bubble Meter
UK House Bubble
Breaking News Relevant Articles© Copyright 2012 Housing Doom | Copyright© 2011, AuthentiCraft, Inc.
Knowing What Ain’t True / Hussman
http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc070827.htm
Home Depot Unit Sees Price Plunge in a Tight Market
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/08/27/business/27depot.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin
Homebuilders vs the Nasdaq: From One Bubble to the Next / Chart Bespoke
http://bespokeinvest.typepad.com/bespoke/2007/08/homebuilders-vs.html
Dems propose dropping nuclear bomb on housing industry.
http://wcvarones.blogspot.com/2007/08/dems-propose-dropping-nuclear-bomb-on.html
wcvarones,
While I agree with the idea in pricipal, execution will be bad. I would argue that it will hit middle america hardest. Older communities would be spared mostly and people who have these houses already will get slammed.
Better yet, provide tax credits to make all houses more energy efficient. Afterall, most of these new McMansions are more efficient than equal sized victorian mansions just due to the newer technologies. Many communities are looking at green building codes as well. But if we are going down this road why not tax far flung suburbs for their longer commutes? Robert Cote I am sure will disagree.
I meant “principle”
Its one thing to sit back and look at the bs numbers on housing. For the past ten months I have compiled statistics on four areas of Phoenix. BUT THEN, I drive the neighborhoods and GO IN THE HOMES. After being trained as an appraiser at ASU and having sold over 2,000 homes, I have an idea of the local market. Yes, this forum has a good idea of where this thing is heading. It isn’t because of a doomer mentality. Its due to realism. I have to hand it to Twist. She makes a statement and backs it up with hard numbers.
We all know that there are many, many vacant homes. In the end the lenders, and ultimately the investors, will be left with HUGE losses. No investor will want to make his money available for real estate mortgages. Its simply going to dry up. For a long time, homes will simply have NO value.
As
metro, I agree that the middle is going to be hit the hardest. They’re hit right now trying to own in general, and they’ll get hit again when the bill is passed on as well.
SteveC-
I agree there’s no replacement for good field work.
I also like to go out and see what’s going on. I drive around the Gilbert, Chandler, QC area every couple of weeks to keep an eye on inventory, especially new home inventory. [I'll do other areas as well, but not as often.]
There are developments where I will see a couple of blocks of empty finished houses sitting there week, after week, after week. If I go into the sales office though and ask about spec homes, sales agents will admit to only having a few- and tell me how great sales have been- THEIR builder is faring better than the other builders, so they aren’t faring as badly.
Thank you for your insight- I try to get around, but obviously this is a much better forum when we can compile our info from all over.
Same here twist, especially since in my area (Spectrum) there is development going on all over.
William Lyon homes has been steadily dropping their incentives by $5k over the past couple months – I’m not quite sure what they’re at now, but they barely broke ground out by Power + Ray.
Southwest homes on pecos and val vista was even offering a FREE CAR/TRUCK! as an incentive. I just chuckled at the thought of a rational person agreeing that financing a depreciating asset (the car! not the house – darned doomers!) for 30 years was a good idea..
It was either the car/truck (mustang or f150 I believe) or around $20,000 in upgrades.
God forbid they.. you know.. actually lower the price to reflect a realistic market price?
Funny you mention that, twist. Nothing like a day of model home hopping to entertain the wife for free. Most of the agents I’ve run into at the new subdivisions aren’t showing all of their cards. Although, it’s pretty clear through even a cursory inspection of the community that there is a lot inventory in most places. I will concede that there are a few communities selling, and of course the ones that have just opened haven’t had time to load up on specs that must be sold urgently.
Still, I have run across a couple of agents who’ve actually said, “Well, those incentives aren’t set in stone. It couldn’t hurt to make an offer and see what happens…” The fact that any of them even suggest that speaks volumes, to me anyway.
State Street reportedly has exposure to $22 bln in conduits
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/state-street-reportedly-has-exposure/story.aspx?guid=%7B37EAC67E%2DA056%2D476F%2DA1A3%2D3DBC116D8788%7D
STT has exposure to $22 billion of asset-backed commercial paper conduits, the types of vehicles that have caused problems at European banks such as Sachsen LB, according to a report in The Times of London newspaper, citing regulatory filings.
Its exposure accounts for 17% of all assets, the highest exposure to conduits of any European or American bank, the report said
Jan-Martin (comment #12) -
I think I’m going to be sick …
National Australia Bank CEO says banking system is coping with subprime fallout
Doomers -
I want everyone to read this paragraph from an ABCP story very, very carefully. Thanks to V for supplying the link.
“A Bird’s-Eye View of the Credit Conundrum”, anonymous, Minyanville, August 28, 2007.
By the way, I have similarly lurid nightmares about Fannie’s QSPEs.
Moin John,
great point!
Don´t know if anybody knows the blog “Nacked Capitalism”
Brilliant!
Martin Wolf Takes Bernanke to the Woodshed
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2007/08/martin-wolf-takes-bernanke-to-woodshed.html
ATA Truck Tonnage Index was down 3.7 percent from a year earlier
Patients Turn to No-Interest Loans for Health Care
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/08/30/business/30medloan.html?_r=1&ref=business&oref=slogin
Bank of England Loaned 1.6 Billion Pounds at 6.75%
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aLN6ivYqxObA&refer=home
H&R Block Loss Doubles on Costs to Fund Mortgage Unit
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aQbQVh_GLFbU&refer=home