Enjoy!

Hmmmmm… PRIME ARMs also contributing significantly to what looks like really ugly numbers. Apparently people who can actually afford it (more) are starting to default too.

It is now clear, from the recent Case-Shiller House Price Index showing a decline of over 3 % YoY nationwide and this week’s other data, that the housing decline is accelerating rather quickly.

Things aren’t necessarily all that rosy in other states either.  This morning’s Dallas Morning News is reporting:

The percentage of people in Texas with late mortgage payments was even higher than the national average. In the second quarter, 6.46 percent of loans in Texas were past due, and 14.7 percent of Texas subprime loans were past due.

Also, 5.19 percent of adjustable-rate loans were delinquent in Texas, and 20 percent of adjustable subprime loans were in default.

A few folks live in Texas too.

I love Airzona — the AP story still has that typo in as of now …

According to an About Geography page, the US population had “a July 1, 2002 estimate of 288,368,698.”

I’ve borrowed the following table from the same site. The bottom line is that as of mid-2002, the non-core seven had 30.2 percent of America’s population.

(35,116,033 + 16,713,149 + 11,421,267 + 10,050,446 +
6,159,068 + 5,456,453 + 2,173,491) / 288,368,698
== 0.302008878 …

(the subtotal — combined population of 7 states == 87,089,907)

Thank you for the CA info, and also to John for the electoral votes. Obviously these states are too significant to just sweep under the rug and say, “Other than that Mrs. Lincoln, how did you like the play?”

this is from Greenberg

Because the Golden State accounts for 13% of the country’s gross domestic product or the total value of all goods and services produced nearly double the No. 2 contributor, New York. That means that what happens in California, home to such growth industries as high-tech, biotech, venture capital and film, doesn’t necessarily stay in California.

The impact of slow economic growth, or even recession, in the state will ripple through the rest of the country.

Doug Duncan started his core foreclosure rate codswallop in mid-June, and BW’s Maya Roney and Peter Coy immediately started twittering away like a couple of MBA choristers. I sincerely hope poor Mara didn’t injure herself biting her tongue. It’s just disgusting that this tired old obfuscation is still making the rounds of the MSM nearly 3 months later. I’m not much more mellow about this now, and at the time all I could do was rant: “But looking on the bright side, and according to my back-of-the-envelope calculation, those states represent 145 electoral votes, a whopping 27%. Win in America’s 7 non-core foreclosure states, and you’re more than halfway home in the 2008 election.“

Don’t ya love it? I don’t know what percentage of the US population lives in those states, but I think it would be fair to say “a lot.” Not only that, this number has nowhere to go but up.

I guess these guys are under pressure to say SOMETHING positive.

I like it!

i havn´t heard it but i have read the same quote.

“Fools day” in August…

Time for the “core” foreclosure rate..

“Record foreclosure rates in Ohio, Michigan, Indiana, California, Florida, Nevada, Arizona, Illinois, Kentucky, Tennessee, Pennsylvania…”

Then, some talking head – possibly a spokesman for the real estate industry – in a last ditch attempt to put some positive spin on these unprecedented, absolutely horrible numbers said: “But if you exclude those states, the foreclosures rates are still quite low.”

I nearly fell off my bed.

and we are still early in the process…..

Very reassuring that right now the loan loss reserves are at new lows….

““for the fifth quarter in a row, reserves failed to keep pace with the increase in non-current loans.” The industry’s “coverage ratio” of reserves to non-current loans fell to the lowest level since the third quarter of 2002, while non-current loans posted the largest quarterly increase since the fourth quarter of 1990.”