ARMLS releases their numbers on the 15th of the month. Butler releases his sales numbers around the 11th, but they aren’t based off of the MLS.

“I realize the real estate market has crashed. But it hasn’t affected my neighborhood good.”

I was talking with an agent friend about how to make money in RE in this market- and it’s rough. If you are buying as an investment, “buy and hold” is a tough strategy when you can’t see the bottom with binoculars. Rents are so out of line with mortgages, positive cash flow is tough as well. It’s true you can get a property well below market- and maybe with a few repairs you can flip it- but there is so much inventory, even nice homes that are well priced are having a tough time selling. A flip can be a risky play as well.

That’s why, contrary to what the NAR says, there’s a time to buy, sell, or HOLD. For most of us, HOLD is the best strategy at the moment.

Short-term I think credit tightening is going to be a problem. The banks are getting all those REOs back in droves though- and there is going to come a point where they are going to have to be aggressive in getting rid of them.

My dad tells me that he remembers in the early 1960s he would drive around Scottsdale and see stickers on a lot of doors [REOs] You could pick your house and just start making the payments. At the rate we are going, I think it is possible we will see those days again.

For most of us, renting is a viable alternative. I can though, envision situations that renting would be tough.

One might be the need for a house with handicapped modifications- or say my home-based business has specific needs [Perhaps I keep a lot of heavy equipment, or a welding shop, etc.] that might make it difficult to find a rental suitable for my needs.

That said- I agree that most of us don’t HAVE to buy a house.

With all our extravagant spending on two wars (and counting) and tax cuts for the rich, I just can’t imagine how hyperinflation can be avoided when confidence in the dollar collapses, a collapse it seems our political and financial leaders seem intent on bringing about. Hey, but I’m glad our media is looking into all the ramifications of…. Britney’s drug problems, OJ, and Hillary’s cleavage.

Good Lord. Are there armed realtors out there? If you “have to buy” a dwelling, go to Walmart and buy a tent. The cost per sq ft is quite reasonable.

In my mind a steal is when I go, “Wow, I couldn’t rent this place for the same amount, and this home is well within my budget and meets my needs. This place is comfortable, affordable, and I can’t see me going anywhere for the next ten years. Consequently, I don’t really care if the market goes up or down.”

When I find THAT house- I’m jumping on it- and I’ll consider it a steal.

NVmike, you are too polite. Call me jaded, I do not believe it is academic negligence on the part of NAR’s economists, but simply fraud. Professional and academic economists that I deal with on a weekly basis bristle at NAR’s pronouncemnets and “analyis”.

Rest assured, they’ll find someone or some thing to blame: Cramer, Bernanke, “Chicken Little” bloggers. builders (for lowering their prices) or just the media in general.

The NAR, even with its bevy of degreed economists, seems incapable of seeing the gross imbalances in the market fundamentals that are glaringly obvious to anyone who doesn’t make money off real estate sales.

You are right- accuracy is better a week from now. It’s always comes in a bit higher- that’s why I rounded up. Hindsight of course, is always more accurate.

It’s clear though, that there is going to be a significant drop- and this is the first indication we’ve had just how significant. I decided to just acknowledge the uncertainty and post it. I would be unbelievably surprised to see the number come in much higher than 3250.

Local MLS data for the previous month is fed into NAR by the 15th of the month which consolidates the numbers for release near the end of the month. We won’t know national September numbers until the end of October.

However, a sampling of a dozen or so major markets has been consistent with the national markets. What you are talking about here will be front page news at local levels in about a week when it is released and front page news nationally in about a month. My numbers are consistent with yours. Can’t wait for NAR’s spin. Who will they blame? The homebuilder fire sales, Cramer’s rantings?