Housing Doom Housing Bubble Blog

A nation that forgets its past is doomed to repeat it. - Churchill

October 2nd, 2007

Pending Home Sales Hit All Time Low

The NAR released it’s Pending Home Sales Report today at 10:00 am Eastern Time.  I however, started working on it at 7:00 EST with the working title of Pending Home Sales Hit All Time Low, and as you can see, I didn’t have to change the title.  According to Marketwatch this morning:

The pending home sales index fell 6.5% in August after dropping a revised 10.7% in July, the National Association of Realtors reported Tuesday. The index is at its lowest level since its inception in 2001.

Pending home sales are down 21.5% compared with a year ago and is down 22% compared with six months ago.

The few economists who forecast the index were looking for a drop of about 2.1% in August.

Unbelievably, on CNBC this morning as the numbers were being reported, the reporter said, This may meet the technical definition of a bottom, as it’s hard to imagine the numbers getting any worse.

In the school of economics I’m used to [And yeah, I’m not an economist] bottoms involve things like troughs and moderating declines, and aren’t defined by a lack of imagination. I’m just not seeing anything resembling a bottom:

Lawrence Yun, chief economist of the National Association of Realtors stated:

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October 2nd, 2007

This “bitter” renter is feeling pretty smug these days

Long-time Doomers will remember that I originally didn’t set out to start a website. I was researching what one ought to pay for a house in my hometown of Gilbert, AZ, and had come to the conclusion that overbuilding and speculation was going to drive prices down. My son said, "You ought to put your research on a website."  I did that- then with John’s help I kind of got distracted by the national market, mortgage lenders and the global economy. 

I still however, do keep an eye on Gilbert home prices, although I don’t post on them much any more.  I thought I’d take a personal indulgence today.

I  like the Realty Times postings of local realtor, Ron Wilczek, who posts the square foot price in Gilbert every month. If you were wondering what has happened to home prices here since I started looking, check this out:

The price has dropped 15.8% since I started tracking it.  When you consider that the current price reflects more incentives than prices did in early 2006, the actual drop is greater.

 

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