Housing Doom Housing Bubble Blog

A nation that forgets its past is doomed to repeat it. - Churchill

October 16th, 2007

Who’s Going To Get The Blame For This One?

Hat tip to CM from Seattle, who sent us a great link on Seattle’s cooling housing market.  I could not believe it when I read the story of Meridith McDonald, however, a new home owner in the Seatttle area. 

Meridith would be my candidate for a high profile jury trial, as she obviously doesn’t follow current events.  After seeing all the stories of "duped" buyers losing their homes to ARM resets and the hazards of rising house payments, I thought we had all pretty much come to the conclusion that rising mortgage payments are a Bad Thing.  Not so Meridith:

Meredith McDonald recently found the house she wanted in Phinney Ridge, but she and the sellers were about $30,000 apart on the price.

"I knew I couldn’t get to the price point they were asking for," McDonald said on Thursday.

That’s when her mortgage broker suggested a buy-down of two percentage points in the first year and one in the second. The arrangement cost the sellers about $8,000 and allowed McDonald time for pay raises and to put some money away before the rate increased.

"It’s nice to have that time to plan," she said.

Question:  If Meredith couldn’t afford the payment without the buydown, how much will she save over the next couple of years, even with the lower payment?  What if those raises don’t materialize?  If she can’t finance?  If two years from now she can’t keep this home, who’s fault would it be?

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October 16th, 2007

OFHEO Will Not Decrease Conforming Loan Limit in 2008

This was just released by the OFHEO:

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
October 16, 2007

      NO DECLINE IN 2008 CONFORMING LOAN LIMIT      
Additional Comments Sought on a Revised Loan Limit Guidance; New Mortgage Market Note on Historical Trends in Conforming Loan Limit


Washington, DC – The Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO) announced today three actions regarding the calculation of the conforming loan limit, which establishes the maximum mortgage loan value eligible for purchase by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

OFHEO Director James Lockhart announced that, based on provisions in the proposed guidance, the current conforming loan limit will not be reduced for 2008. If the index used to calculate the maximum loan level should increase, the amount of the increase in 2008 would be reduced by the decline calculated in 2006 of 0.16%. Under no circumstance, however, would the maximum loan level for 2008 drop below the 2006 and 2007 limit of $417,000.

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October 16th, 2007

Phoenix Home Sales: How Low Can We Go?

Usually we would be looking at Jay Butler’s numbers by now, but we are still waiting for that release.  In the meantime ARMLS has released their September numbers, and it’s not pretty.  For the moths of September ARMLS states that sales fell to 3421.  My records go back to 2001 for Phoenix, and this number falls below the slowest month for which I have data- 3700 homes sold in January 2001.

Listings continue to grow, and it’s getting tougher to spot the sales amongst the listings:

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