Comments on: September New Homes Sales Are Down 23.3%

By: stuffingmonkey

stuffingmonkey — Fri, 26 Oct 2007 17:39:27 +0000

The only reason sales are “up” MoM in September is because August was “revised down sharply.” Although I don’t have the documentation, the trend seems that every month over the past year has been revised down from the initial overly optimistic reports. Yet, they rarely get called on the revisions by the time the next month’s reports are released.

No doubt we’ll see September’s figures revised downward as well.

By: metroplexual

metroplexual — Fri, 26 Oct 2007 00:26:36 +0000

But what about the March 2008 ARM resets? I predict his line will go straight through 2008. Just MHO. Again I am just thinking trend-lines.

By: twist

twist — Fri, 26 Oct 2007 00:05:09 +0000

Metro-

I think the trend will probably be pretty consistent for the next few months, but I would think things would moderate a bit in February. The MOM is too variable [and too subject to revision] to get worked up about any one month one way or the other.

The Commerce Department does a better job than most of clearly stating in their report that the trend is only good over months, margin of error, etc.- but too many folks don’t have the attention span to get past the headline.

By: metroplexual

metroplexual — Thu, 25 Oct 2007 16:05:00 +0000

Throwing in an R-squared, nice! Do you see this as a predictive straight line for the next few months?.

Again, the lazy MSM were just parroting the party line from NAR on this.