Thanks as always to M for our early November preview. These are the numbers as of yesterday morning- so remember they might creep up just a bit:
Active 56,694
UC 4,172
Sold 3,226
" 06 5,321
" 05 7,290
" 04 8,022
" 03 5,640
Expired November 3,835
Cancelled " 5,088
Our early October preview showed sales of 3,457, so month- to-month we are seeing a decline as well as year-over-year. You’ll note that sales have actually been declining every year since 2004.
While inventory is down from last month’s 57,725, it is not falling as rapidly as anticipated this time of year. The holidays are not everyone’s favorite time to sell- many homes come off of the market until after the first of the year. While cancelled/expired well exceed sold, it appears that a number of sellers are anxious enough to keep their property on the market.
It appears that the inventory numbers will dip, but with all of the vacants, there will still be more inventory than last December. There is obviously no need to de-list a vacant for Christmas.
I saw a few vacant houses advertised as Super Bowl week rentals. That may work out as a little cash influx for some, considering that hotel rates are off the charts that week. Of course, I would not trust FBs with more than a few hundred dollars in deposit money.
Russ-
L sent me a e-flyer for a REO over by the stadium. It advocated fixing it up and renting it out for the Super Bowl. You have to wonder how that one works for a long term investment strategy though.
I think you are right about the vacants and this year’s inventory. I also think sellers may be more desperate than last year. It times past folks were more likely to pull the home off the market for the holidays. If you have only had one showing in the past six months though, you don’t really live in fear of a lot of showings messing up your holiday plans.
The other reason I think there is more inventory is the builders keep on building. More new homes means that more used homes will make their way to the MLS.
It’s going to be worse before it gets better.
Remember when you rent a house for the Super Bowl It has to be furnished and livable?
L-
It sounds like you’d have to charge a LOT to make that Super Bowl deal worthwhile. If I were coming into town, for that much money, I’d go stay at The Boulders or the Phoenician.
“Remember when you rent a house for the Super Bowl It has to be furnished and livable?”
It definitely has to be furnished, but I could see folks cutting corners and trying to rent out a house with a few cots and futons. Either that, or the other extreme of asking way too much money, plus an enormous deposit for a normally furnished house. Either way, the very definition of a short-term plan.
RE: inventory – A cousin of mine is one of those folks currently racking up over 200 days on market for his house in Peoria. Of course, he never asked my opinion on his adventures. He bought a huge new house there in early ‘04 (contracted mid ‘03), and put it for sale a little late in the bubble game (Spring ‘06). Still, he walked away with $180K in bubble profits after eventually cutting the list price.
But he just had to buy again, and paid 5% off peak for a smaller house in the same subdivision, closing before the first one sold. At least he downsized, but I would estimate that he is down $80,000 on the current house. The guy lives there, can afford the mortgage, but will probably ride it to the bottom with the same list price, which is way over some desperate sellers’ and REO asking prices. He will probably end up “even” if you consider both transactions, but still, how sweet would it have been for him to rent for a grand a month instead of buying #2. Too bad.
The house is for sale now and he recently expressed an interest in renting; so I think that he realizes that the era of appreciation is over in the near-term. But it is too late. He probably could have dumped it by writing a $40K check in Spring ‘07, but denial runs deep. I should have done an intervention.