Jon

I am sure you are right. Either way the downturn in California will impact Washington state.

I think a lot of Californians took their gains [or at least their HELOCS] and invested in surrounding states. Certainly when I’m looking at the Maricopa County website at “boom time” purchases, when I see a non-owner occupied property, most are owned by Arizonans, but Californians are the most frequent out-of-state buyer. I wouldn’t be surprised if the same is true in other western states.

My guess is those numbers are currently down though.

As Florida Sinks
The View from the Titanic

http://www.counterpunch.org/farago01092008.html

And according to Jeffrey Saut, chief investment strategist for Raymond James

“The real question is whether the overspent/undersaved consumer is finally sated with debt,” Saut said. “The Fed can stand on its head and blow soap bubbles out of its butt and that won’t do anything.”

http://money.cnn.com/2008/01/09/news/economy/fed_rates/index.htm?cnn=yes

It’s good to hear from you- I appreciate your rare sane voice perspective on LV.

I saw the LV numbers, but my post isn’t up either. [Mostly because the graphs, etc. take awhile, and I'm still trying to unpack and get the kids in school.]

You are right though- up until the bust, the RJ always reported on the previous month’s sales by the 5th of the month. Now there’s no particular rush.

Mr. Twist called me from LV today, [He's in town for CES] he says there’s no escaping the City Center ads. They are marketing them like crazy, but I think the project is too big, too late. If SF is bad in LV, condos are worse.

Long time no post/email. Hope your move went well. Just thought I’d chime in and let you know that the Vegas MLS numbers have been out since Jan 3 however, there still hasn’t been an article in the paper. Wonder why?

Here’s why… how does a median price of $260k for SFHs hit ya? It was $306k last year and $312 in 2005. Sales, yeah we had a couple. Ok, 879 is more than a couple, but not much more.

Inventory isn’t going away (look at how high the listings were for Dec) and I’m certain the big drops are coming due to the number of foreclosures that continue to come on the market. It’ll be a while before we hit bottom.

Glad all the local experts (except me, of course!) agree we didn’t and don’t have a bubble here!

-Rebel

The problem I see with recovery in Seattle is tighter lending standards and prices out of line with what most people can afford.

When a home payment is affordable, you aren’t trying to use your primary residence to get rich and you are sticking around awhile, then buying can make sense without paying a lot of attention to the direction of the market.

I remember friends buying a home years ago that was more than they could really afford, but they were saying, “As long as we can keep our jobs, the car doesn’t ever break down, no one gets sick and we live without new furniture for awhile, we’ll be fine.” That kind of planning is too risky.

Low interest rates won’t solve financing rates, but they certainly won’t hurt. I still think sales will be down considerably YOY this summer in Seattle.

– Open House

I’ve considered going back and pulling comments from all the major metro areas that have claims that their market is “special.” Most of this “special bullet-proof markets” have been declining. When you look at supply and demand in even the better markets, you are generally see supply up and demand down. Yes it’s possible to “cherry pick” and show that certain neighborhoods have done better than others, but anyone who buys anywhere in this market without doing their research can find themselves with an expensive, declining asset.

I tried to show him that 10% appreciation was impossible over long periods of time. I did a simple spreadsheet calc from 1940-2000 showing a 10% appreciation would result in a $2 million AVERAGE home.

But he bought it anyway.

& I bet you he’s still bullish.