The headline in yesterday’s Arizona Star was Home Price Median Here Below $200K:
The Tucson real estate market hit a milestone in February: The median price dipped below $200,000 for the first time in almost three years.The median price dropped to $199,900, down about 9 percent from $219,500 in the same month last year, said a report issued Tuesday by the Tucson Association of Realtors Multiple Listing Service.
You gotta love this comment from the TAR:
Rick Hodges, chief executive officer of the Tucson Association of Realtors, said the association didn’t take much notice of the median price change in February."The monthly blips that occur we don’t look real closely at," he said, adding that the organization focuses on the "long-term trends."
"We’re not experiencing what the rest of the country is as far as depreciation," he said. [Hodges is correct- it is not the same. In January Tucson's depreciation was 2.9% greater than the national average.]
We at Doom agree with Hodges, we like to look at long-term trends as well. Here’s what that "monthly blip" looks like:
It kind of looks like a long term "blip", doesn’t it?
Home sales remain in the doldrums. Sales are up 18% from January’s 594 to 710, but they are down 29% year over year from last year’s 999.
The bright spot in the news was that inventory is actually down year over year. The TAR is reporting 9,168 listings– down 6.9% from last year’s 9,847. This still represents a 12.9 months supply of homes versus last year’s 9.9 month supply, due to slower demand.
According to Kimberly Clifton, President of the TAR:
The limits for an FHA loan in Pima County have been raised from $239,850 to $316,250 on a 1 unit single family residence with a 3% down payment. This is a better increase than we anticipated and with 6,534 homes currently on the market priced under $327,000 this will open up a new level of opportunity for buyers and sellers.
It remains to be seen how many buyers can and will avail themselves of this new "opportunity".
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My sister lives in Tucson and is under the belief that sales prices are holding steady. I mentioned her house on Zillow had nose dived by 20-30% from the high. She is in denial about it.
Preach it, Metro! There is indeed a lot of denial here in the Old Pueblo.
So much so, that there’s a double-flip attempt happening near me. The “For Sale” signs went up last weekend. The owner wants to sell the property for twice what he bought it for last May.
BTW, it’s a rental property with two houses that he’s had a tough time renting. He’s only had full occupancy for a month.
Yeah Slim,
It is difficult to say it also because the piggy bank is supposed to help with college for her son and daughter. She lives on the NE side of town so that is supposed to protect her from losing value. She has a 5 acre ranchette so maybe that will mitigate the loss. She bought it in 2000 when the market was normal.
As for your flipper
I love the term blip. Maybe they are talking about time in terms of like how long the earth has existed.
There had to be a “blip”, median wages were
nowhere near what they had to be to keep up with the prices that took off in 2005. Tucson
already had an affordability housing gap that was worse than most cities of its size in the U.S. so it just got worse. Couple that with amatuer investors trying to flip, build, and make money selling homes a disaster was inevitable. Single family homes should be built, and bought for what they are for one to enjoy the home with their friends and family.