Home sales for march are running once again at about 70% of last years march numbers. Inventory is 56700 per mls here, and foreclosures will be about 2000 again in march, keeping the remarkable pace from January and February alive…

But here is the scary part: As of december last year, NTR (notice of trustee sales) had been at max 3500. January and February (March should t00) both saw 5000+. As foreclosure in AZ takes 90 days minimum from NTR date, and have been about 55 to 75% of the 3months prior NTR value, we could now see foreclosures suddenly pick up to 2500 – 3000.

This market is toast…

My father keeps asking me when I am getting back into housing and he must think I am a nut because I tell him the price reductions are only going to get worse. (Or better if you are one of us.)

I know what you mean on expectations from the MSM- It’s actually been a few months since I’ve posted the Phoenix listings vs sales graph because I end up thinking, “Twist old girl, you’ve tilted at this windmill enough.” Then I’ll read the comments in the Republic’s blog, or receive emails from readers and realize that there are people THAT ACTUALLY BELIEVE THE REPUBLIC’S STUFF.

So I strap on the old rusty armor and take another stab at them. : )

My wife and I have ben tracking listings in Capitol Hill and Dupont since spring 2006. While not a scientific method, we’ve sen list prices come down 10-20% so far. We expect them to come down by a third overall, some time between late summer and next spring.

We rent in Silver Spring for $1150/month and are happy to be patient, getting stronger as the market gets weaker. We’ve been through 5 agents and have learned to tune them out, along with the wishful thinkers who say the DC market is immune to normal market forces.

My only comment to you is that my BiL lives 10-12 minutes south of National airport and has taken a hit of nearly 5-10% as per zillow.com. So the arrogance does not come across as genuine. All areas will experience decline if they had a rapid runup. So even if you you live in the utopia of Fairfax County you will see depreciation.

Well, I’m in DC now… renting a $700k+ house for $2,500/mo and don’t own a stick of real estate for the first time since 1994. Since then I’ve owned/sold 20+ houses and read all sorts of books, courses, news articles, etc.

At this point, I hardly ever read the news articles because they are so predictable. They never consider the big picture and rarely scratch the surface of the truth. To keep expecting any more than that from these sources is just silly, it ain’t gonna happen.

Here in DC proper prices are slowly falling as inventory builds up, but the average joe is in deep denial. You see, it’s different here in DC. It doesn’t matter that the surrounding counties have huge foreclosure and inventory numbers because the law of supply v. demand has been repealed. Prices can not fall because there are too many high paid gov’t employees and contractors… at least that’s what they say when they don’t remember the late ’80s and early ’90s.

Many people speculate on what would have to happen for prices to really drop here… terrorism, riots, etc. They are way off. The biggest threat to the DC housing market, and the DC economy in general, is a balanced federal budget. In the absence of that, we’ll just have to let time chip away at the median price month-by-month until the rent v. buy decision takes more than 1/2 second to make.

Hope TX is treating you well!

LOL.

These (ahem) “experts” – experts whose livelihoods depend on an upturn! – probably don’t realize how foolish they look calling these false bottoms every few months.