Even if I moved in with 15% equity in the house according to the most recent appraisal, I’d consider it money that belongs not to me, but to the market. Should it drop even further, that’s the fat the market will eat for nutrition before it starts attacking my principal.

It’s always nice to meet folks who you’ve probably seen at your grocery store before without knowing =P

Another big area I’m seeing with the same symptoms is Ray + Power (ish). There’s a very high turnover of rentals in that area and William Lyon had 2 developments they were building when the bubble popped and got everyone wet. I’m constantly seeing rentals on Craigslist and listings in the MLS for the Power+Ray (or Higley+Ray, etc) area and Germann+Higley area.

Gilbert+Riggs seems to be another hotspot, but it seems less volatile over there.

This is a great time to get your funding and credit scores in order, get on a very trim budget and try to build some liquidity, and keep an eye on the local market. I’m expecting these areas to drop another 10-15% at LEAST before we see an uptick in the market values.

Also of importance is building equity on the purchase. I’ve said in another post that I’m looking to make a 75% offer on 3 houses with the floorplan I want in my neighborhood. I figure that 25% off would give me a good 15-20% solid equity to weather the flatline with.

Just because we’re not going DOWN anymore, doesn’t mean we’ll be going UP. As you’ve pointed out, twist, there’s a high likelihood that save for artificial conditions, that this market may flatline for a bit while the banks unload their inventory, builders adjust their books and future plans, and buyers start coming out asking, “Is it safe yet?”.

Let a laborer stay in one of our upscale estates in exchange for free groundskeeping?!

That’s just uncouth!

It’s also the most sensible idea I’ve ever heard.

M’s comment- “You’re 100% on the money!”

M and I have driven around the same area for years now and have come to the same conclusion. The area was built up to meet speculative demand in excess of real growth- and it’s going to suffer until real growth catches up.

Igor says “bad idea”. He’s right, it was.

I live just west of VV on the corner of VV and Germann and this neighborhood is doing fine.

But everything EAST of us up until Power Ranch seems to have been built with the expectation that the market would go UP for at least another 2-3 years while they got their infrastructure together.

If you go to Craigslist or look at the MLS for Gilbert there are TOOOONS of homes around the Higley+Germann area. If you drive there, it’s a mess. No stores, no gas stations, total road construction, and tons of half-built homes and bulldozed dirt lots standing empty.

It’s almost like someone hit the “PAUSE” button on the sprawl out here. You can see the starting phases of all that future growth, but that area is virtually a ghost town.

I always joked with my kids when we’re in that area that there are too many flags, not enough cars.

If I lived there, I wouldn’t mow… I’d till and plant a little something. Hey, better than weeds, or just spraying poison everywhere! Why are we so quick to destroy nature when it’s not a tiff lawn?

Of course, if I lived there, I’d be home now.

Just sayin’.

The other thing is, yes you do take turns, or you place a lien on the property. That lien doesn’t go away, and stays with the property. Eventually there will be a recovery, the houses sold, and money obtained.

I grew up in a neighborhood that was only 1/2 full. 20 years later all of the lots STILL have not been built on (tho only 2-3 remain vacant of the 30 homes). There were weeds, dirt lots, it wasn’t so bad.

This community looks bad. All the more reason to research.

Small builders doesn’t necessarily mean bad. It just means you need to do your research. For most builders all the subs are going to be the same anyway.

Reminds me so much of California living.

Glad I got the heck out of there.

Flash forward 3 years to see this place as a ghost town

A point well taken. I was drafted to be on the board of our homeowner’s association about 10 years ago- and I was shocked how expensive it was to run an HOA. We had 270 homes, a park and a lot of greenbelts- and an operating budget of close to $200K/year.

If I were in the market for a new home, I’d stick to neighborhoods near buildout. As you indicated many communities are having budget problems with all the foreclosures, but at least there is more safety in numbers.

My HOA’s last newsletter indicated due to the high foreclosure rate and resultant uncollected dues, we are in a deficit, and the board may have to arbitrarily increase the monthly fee the maximum amount allowed by CA law without a majority vote – 20%.