Housing Doom

A nation that forgets its past is doomed to repeat it. - Churchill

May 14th, 2008

The Reality Fairy Has Left The Room- And Possibly The Country

Here’s a novel solution to our economic woes.  Let’s just redefine what makes for a "good" economy.  From today’s Arizona Republic:  [Thanks L!]

Arizona’s economy may seem ugly right now but when you look at it from a historical context, it looks pretty good, an Arizona State University economics expert said Tuesday.

Home building is back to normal, the weaker dollar is boosting exports, high gas prices encourage conservation, unemployment is fairly low, and medical and government jobs are growing more than 1,000 a month, said Lee McPheters, director of ASU’s JPMorgan Chase Economic Outlook Center.

"Let’s redefine good. Good means it could be worse," he said to members of the Economic Club of Phoenix at the Arizona Biltmore Resort & Spa.

McPheters, one of three economics experts speaking to the group, wore a white hat because he got to present the good news portion of the program.

It sounds like McPheters should have worn a dunce cap instead.

Then there is today’s inflation numbers. The Reality Fairy has obviously not just left Arizona, but her influence seems to have disappeared on a national level as well.  Take for example last month’s "improvement" in gas prices:

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May 14th, 2008

Phoenix: April Home Sales Up But Median Down 21%

Yesterday Jay Butler released his monthly home sales report for the Phoenix area:

MESA, Ariz. — For the first time since July 2005, the local resale housing market has posted year-over-year improvement. April had 5,585 recorded sales in contrast to 4,855 sales for a year ago and 4,335 sales in March 2008. Given the improvement, the basic question is whether this is the first sign of the much anticipated recovery or merely a blip in a continuing weak market, said Jay Butler, director of Realty Studies in the Morrison School of Management and Agribusiness at Arizona State University’s Polytechnic campus.

Sales exceeded last year’s sales by 15%, although they remain well below the level of the last few years:

Butler says of the increase:

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