According to Marketwatch yesterday, "Greenspan sees U.S. house price hit bottom in 2009". I think he’s seeing things. [Thanks L!]
U.S. home prices will likely bottom out in early 2009 after the market absorbs excess inventories, former U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan told audiences in Asia Wednesday, according to news reports. Greenspan, who spoke by video link to audiences in Hong Kong and Singapore, said the current pace of liquidation will accelerate, but excess supply won’t be eliminated until early 2009.
According to data from the NAR, existing home inventory is up 6.6% year-over-year, and months’ supply is up 32%. Existing homes aren’t going anywhere fast. The National Association of Homebuilders is reporting a 15% drop in inventory year-over-year, but months’ supply is also up 32%. At this rate, how will all the excess supply be "eliminated" by early 2009?
L’s comment:
