Comments on: Op-Ed Friday: Housing Starts In The Eye Of The Beholder

By: ice weasel

ice weasel — Sun, 18 May 2008 23:49:01 +0000

Show me “REO’s priced $10,000 – $50,000 less than ‘normal’ sales” and I’ll show you a house that will be worth at least $10,000 – $50,000 than it is at that less “risky” price. There may be a few exceptions to that rule but the operative word in this sentence is “few”, very few.

Not that I would ever dissuade anyone from “investing” in housing. Some people need to for their own reasons. Some people just feel they’re smarter than the rest. I am sure there are almost as many motivations to buy as there are buyers.

For myself, I’ll sit on the sidelines and watch for awhile.

By: sandman

sandman — Sat, 17 May 2008 21:19:19 +0000

Wow Lawrence, I guess I should buy now or be priced out forever, huh?

By: billydlight

billydlight — Sat, 17 May 2008 16:32:38 +0000

I think what we have seen since last august is the pull out of the super money. A friend asked, “If it’s so bad why are they building, albeit slowly?”
Now is the time for the near rich, the sycophantic money people. Those that cannot afford a pull out. As long as a developer has a project in the works it gives off the air of “see we have our stuff together” in an attempt to lure big money back. Or give little money bait that THIS company is a winner. That is why I see the REGIONAL MARKET word coming out of the closet. Lil money,per capita millionares, can float a company for a while longer until they are sucked dry.

By: montyloree

montyloree — Sat, 17 May 2008 15:40:50 +0000

If people have their cash in place and are in a good credit position, this is probably a good time to buy new or used.

This market is good for new buyers, and sad for those whose houses are losing their value, while maintaining the mortgage value.

By: twist

twist — Sat, 17 May 2008 14:08:24 +0000

Keith-

Perhaps Yun is thinking about inflation. If a loaf of bread starts going for $1K, maybe house prices will go up as well.

Either that, or he is absolutely nuts. One or the other. Or both.

By: Keith

Keith — Sat, 17 May 2008 03:55:01 +0000

eddie – You’re right on. To say any investment in this market would be foolish is just, well, foolish. Not buying a house right now simply on the basis of market reports and what everyone else is saying is just the opposite end of the spectrum from buying a house in the boom years because everyone else said you should. There are always deals to be found in any market. REO is a good example, as well as short sales, if you can find the deal. This just isn’t a time for foolish speculators. There are folks right now who are investing to make a fortune.

Of course, Yun is an idiot, and I don’t use that word lightly. Las Vegas will experience 10% YoY increase for the next five years?

By: eddiepeas

eddiepeas — Fri, 16 May 2008 21:13:52 +0000

The comment made by 'foreclosure expert' is right on. I can understand why people are bothered by the current real estate market but along with the troubles there is incredible opportunity. Home prices are discounted so much right now that you can get a great property at a discounted rate without worry or you can get into a foreclosure, REO, or pre-foreclosure and know you'll be in good shape. PropertyMaps has a Google Maps mashup that lists Chicago real estate and distressed property across the nation.

By: Asset Hunter

Asset Hunter — Fri, 16 May 2008 20:45:30 +0000

Well I got this email today, so you guys had better hurry up and buy something in all of these cities or you’ll be in deep regret and anguish in a couple years!

(I couldn’t even type that without laughing out loud at my own sarcastic thoughts!!)

Anyway, here it is… enjoy!
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Home Sales, Prices to Pick Up In Second Half of 2008, Says NAR Chief Economist

05/16/2008 PR Newswire (U.S.)

WASHINGTON, May 15 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ — Home sales and prices throughout most of the country are poised for improvement in the second half of 2008, and the recovery will vary by market, Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors(R) said today during NAR’s Midyear Legislative Meetings & Trade Expo. More than 9,000 Realtors(R) and guests are attending the conference that runs here through Saturday.

Middle-America cities that performed evenly over the past few years – like Cincinnati, Milwaukee and the Kansas City, Mo., area – are likely to experience home price gains in the 20 to 30 percent range over the next five years, while markets like Miami, Las Vegas and Phoenix could see prices go up as much as 50 percent during that time period, Yun said.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

BTW: Igor doesn’t seem to agree with the prophetic Mr. Yun. Igor says: explode
Or maybe that means “explode BEYOND just a measly 50% increase?)

By: Keith

Keith — Fri, 16 May 2008 18:36:06 +0000

Diana Olick’s blog pretty much sums it up. The MOE in these reports is about +/- 14%…hardly reliable, plus it’s scewed by apartments (up 40%, renters), not single family homes (which were actaully down again).

To qoute Diana:
“New home sales are down nearly 37 percent from a year ago, prices in March were down 13 percent and inventories are up to an 11-month supply. So who in their right mind would stick a shovel in the ground?

I frankly can’t understand why anyone would think a bump in starts and especially permits is good news in any way, when home builders can’t give their houses away and immense quarterly write-downs of their assets scream that from the rooftops!”

What more could be said?

By: foreclosure_expert

foreclosure_expert — Fri, 16 May 2008 17:24:21 +0000

No one wants to buy an asset that is depreciating, with the exception of cars, TV’s, and the other consumer “stuff” we buy. Having said that, my take has always been that if you are ready to buy a house — buy it for much less than the mythical and ever changing “market value.” There are plenty of REO’s priced $10,000 – $50,000 less than “normal” sales that will greatly reduce any risk in buying a home.

I have some interesting, if not horrifying, depreciation stats to share about the Town of Maricopa, AZ:

http://www.foreclosureexpert.info/2008/05/a-tale-of-2-cit.html