While the official numbers from ARMLS will not be out until the 15th, we thank M as always for our early preview of Phoenix home sales. This month it appears that sales are down year-over-year, but only slightly:
Active 53,104
UC 8,304
Sold 5,605
According to ARMLS, 5795 homes sold in May 2007.
Our unofficial inventory stood at 54,705 last month, so inventory has dropped slightly. However, from data I have seen recently I believe that there are a number of lender owned properties that are not being listed, although it is difficult to tell how many unlisted lender properties are actually out there.
M believes that July might be our first year-over-year sales increase in over two years. I think we’ll remain slightly below last year’s levels this summer.
M- Maybe we should have a small bet going on this one. How about either lunch or a lot in Eloy?
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Here is the current information on the Arizona Regional MLS. Actives are down by 1,777 from last month. You will also see why it is called the Arizona “Regional” MLS:
http://www.foreclosureexpert.info/2008/06/total-active-li.html
They are not listing this exponentially increasing toxic waste in their figures. They are desperate to maintain the economy until after the elections so we are being treated to another round of “hide and seek”. It’s there , you just have to find it. Look for subtle changes to accounting practices to keep this garbage off their books
Some other details about May sales:
Short Sale = 629,REO=1551, Normal sale=3420
Compared to May 07, with Short sale = 78, REO=115, Normal sale=5614
Sales are climbing purely on bank owned or bank approved sales, normal sellers are far worse off despite the comparable year over year sales numbers.
REDC is holding a housing auction in June for foreclosed homes. 600 homes or so for sale, so these may have left the MLS inventory. I’m not sure if that’s all of it, but I have seen a surprising number of cancelled or taken of markets on my foreclosure/shortsale MLS auto searches.
Another possible consideration to declining inventory: Homes in foreclosure, but not yet foreclosed. May saw 6500 Notice of trustee sales, up from 6150 in April, and slightly over 5000 for January, February and March. That is 27,000 homes entering foreclosure since the begining of the year, and while many have foreclosed, some have caught up, and some are on the MLS as short sales, I believe it is quite likely that a good few thousand are actually just sitting there waiting to foreclose. After all, if you are underwater, its not likely to sell anyways, and if it does you don’t make anything, so just sit there and enjoy free rent.
If this trend continues, this fall we should see months with more foreclosures than actual sales.
I think you are right Azrob. The pace of foreclosures is primed to continue and even rise through the end of 2009. Rents may even drop a bit by next year.
Igor says stupid
Great comments.