On our masthead is the quote from Churchill "A nation that forgets it’s past is doomed to repeat it." By extension we could add "A nation that doesn’t learn from the mistakes of other nations is doomed to repeat their mistakes."
An article from today’s Vancouver Sun should sound familiar to Doomers. It is discussing how the Victoria housing market is cooling- and the article could have been lifted from a 2006 Arizona Republic, Las Vegas Review Journal, Sacramento Bee, etc. [Bubbleheads know the cast of characters]
VICTORIA — Real estate sales are down in the provincial capital. The number of sales and the total value are lower, and the real estate industry is seeing signs that Victoria’s housing boom is over.
"We are definitely seeing a shift in the marketplace, although it’s certainly not a time for panic," said Victoria Real Estate Board president Tony Joe. "For people hoping home values will be plummeting any time in the future, I don’t think that’s going to be happening any time soon."
Joe said the market has been cool so far in 2008, but that’s in comparison to 2007, an "exceptionally busy year when we exceeded all the numbers." "We’re also looking over the last five or six years and what we’re finding is things are just coming back to normal," he said.
Compare that to this 2006 USA Today article discussing the Phoenix market:
The declines appear so dramatic because Phoenix’s housing market last year (and for the past several years) was so hyperinflated. "Last year was just one of those atrocities that happens rarely," in terms of bidding wars and soaring prices, says Camille Sullivan, also an agent at Realty Executives. "I’ve never seen it before, and I’ve been doing this for 25 years. It was a very difficult time."
Sullivan says the market is "stabilizing and getting back to normal."
Same old story, and likely as not, same old results.
Sigh.
Great post, Twist!
It’s about time that the constant cheerleading absurdity of the Victoria Real Estate board’s (and Vancouver Sun’s) reporting on the real estate market was revealed for what it truly is: just an echo of the desperate denials that were being printed in the Phoenix (and other U.S.) media about two years ago.
Well, we know what came of the deperate denials in the U.S. media two years ago, do we not? With that in mind, one would have to be an utter fool to go and buy an investment property in Victoria (or Vancouver) these days. This is ESPECIALLY when we know that
- interest rates are coming up soon (meaning even more pressures for prices to lower)
- there are many, many more cheaper, more attractive, properties in the U.S. (where there is better year-round climate)
- the Canadian dollar at about par with the U.S. dollar
Amazingly enough there are still many, MANY, people in Vancouver and Victoria that believe they “are different”. It’s quite hilarious, actually.
MikeC-
It’s enough to make you start singing the song from the children’s show Barney, Everyone is special, everyone is fine… as the “too special to fail” excuse is repeated over and over.
Having read so much of this stuff for years, I now feel qualified to write for newspapers about real estate markets from throughout the English speaking world. All you need is the following template:
It would be an easy gig.
Hilarious news article template, Twist!
All the moreso because it is so true!
Great stuff MikeC. You could probably write the VREB reports every month too.
“We continue to return to a balanced market” says VREB president Tony Joe…..
BTW you can follow inventory stats and discussion on my blog at http://www.restats.ca. Thanks for mentioning Victoria twist!