Five: Given that the foreclosure rate is accelerating, not moderating, it is safe to assume this thing still has a long way to run.

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Six: The worst is yet to come in the credit crisis, and – given that the FED has already gone though half it’s $900 billion reserves – there is a real chance it may not be able to preserve the system as we know it.

And…

“Hmmmmmmmmmm. Seems like more homes will be going into foreclosure than are selling each month.”

I think this observation says it all in terms of what these NOT numbers mean.

If you want to see where the building/development industry is headed, take a look at the relevant professions on Monster.
Do a search for Architect, Landscape Architect, Civil Engineer, and Land Surveyor positions. Look by State and Nationwide. Holy Cow.

Also here is a nice MLS mapping site:

http://idx.diversesolutions.com/Search/962/41

Know that these buyers are working in the billion dollar range and may require time to ramp up their sales efforts.

I know of one fund that did this a couple of years ago and they are now in bankruptcy. It seems the vulture funds have mortgages too. LOL

Jim made large bubble profits by purchasing on a new build behemoth in the same area in early 2004 and selling it in 2006. He sold a bit past the peak, but still pocketed around $180K.

Of course, he just had to buy again (before the first sale closed, BTW), although he downsized in size and price (thankfully). So, the second house is now about $100K underwater, which is more than his 20% down payment on a re-finance (he had to something with some of that bubble cash). If Jim walks away, he would still be a tad over $100K ahead in terms of his net housing bubble experience. Somehow, I do not think he will look at the situation with that positive spin. One more NOT coming soon (I’m guessing).

When you start to consider the losses in value sustained by homeowners and lenders in Phoenix, the mind boggles. It’s hard to see how lenders could withstand this sort of hit if Phoenix were the only down market in the nation. When you consider what is happening in FL, NV, CA and the midwest- it’s hard to see how any lenders are still standing.

This data is not easy to come by. I’d say that Clark County probably looks worse, but how does a graph do worse than a 90 degree turn?

I’m familiar with the “hockey stick” graph, but the express is inadequate in this case. What’s the opposite of a “dead cat drop”?

Oh. My. G**.

Wow.

[Slight edit- but I completely understand the sentiment. T.]

L and I spent some time looking at one Phoenix area neighborhood trying to determine how many REOs were unlisted. In the neighborhood we looked at, about 40% were not.

It was a large neighborhood, so the number of properties made it difficult to come up with a good flow chart, but it appeared to me that for the most part, they were cycling the properties through the MLS. Listings are allowed to expire, and another property is listed.

Letting them expire and sit awhile allows them to become “new listings”, so they don’t look like they’ve been sitting so long, and cycling them helps keep the numbers down.

It took hours to track the patterns in this one neighborhood, so I didn’t look at any others. I’m going to guess that the pattern is Valleywide though.

So, I am curious as to what is happening with the houses that are now “owned” by the bank. Are the banks just holding them on the books? Are they selling them to “private” investors? Have they taken the loss on their books then turned around and sold them back to the originals owners for a better loan?