Comments on: Phoenix Sales Preview: June Home Sales Up Slightly Year-Over-Year

By: azrob

azrob — Sun, 06 Jul 2008 04:26:49 +0000

I have been getting emails from people 100 and 200K underwater in maricopa, QC, etc. Now, as the crash works inwards, I expect the same from the farther flung parts of Chandler,Gilbert, Mesa, etc. Speaking with other realtors, older homes in foreclosure are often quite crappy, but newer ones usually look pretty nice.

By: Russ

Russ — Fri, 04 Jul 2008 22:28:36 +0000

“of the RE market down there I often wonder if I could pick back up the same house for less than I sold it for.”

If you have the model name/approximate square footage and subdivision, we can look up what is going on there.

By: Russ

Russ — Fri, 04 Jul 2008 15:38:53 +0000

“The “better” QC and Maricopa numbers appear to be a function of properties completing the foreclosure process (and driving down prices as they do).”

Absolutely correct. Those increased sales will massacre appraisals and even the often rosy Zestimates. This turns a tough re-finance into an impossibility, which adds to the walkaways when a refinance is the only option. Even many who were not serial HELOCers will walk away, as will many 2008 buyers as their “steals” turn into affordable houses.

By: pwrightt

pwrightt — Fri, 04 Jul 2008 14:28:09 +0000

I just purchased a home this past June. I looked at approximately 50-60 houses mostly foreclosures. I have to say to get them sold many had new tile, carpet and paint. Now saying that I did see a LOT of them that had holes in the walls where you can tell someone had punched his/her fist. Also price had a lot to do with the condition of the home. At one home someone had poured concret down the toilet. Its a matter of looking and finding a GREAT deal not just a good deal.

By: twist

twist — Fri, 04 Jul 2008 13:40:21 +0000

Azrob-

Same thing, different abbreviation.

While the Maricopa County Recorder’s Office says “N/Tr Sale” for “Notice of Trustee Sales”, most folks are more familiar with the NOT abbreviation.

I agree that there are some lovely bank-owned properties. Not everyone trashes the place on the way out- homes range from awful to move-in ready.

I suspect the percentage of REOs in rough shape may depend on what price range, area, or if the homes were investor owned or not. I’ll check with M and see what he was looking at.

By: azrob

azrob — Fri, 04 Jul 2008 06:43:11 +0000

Maricopa county doesn’t use NOT’s we use NTR’s Notice of trustee sales, 90 days before the sale; we had over 7000 of them in june, to go with 3600 foreclosures and 5700 sales; it seems to me quite obvious, the market will continue dropping hard.

Bank owned homes are not that bad; I spent the last 2 days looking at dozens, 80percent are just as good as homes normally are, 10% a bit rundown, 10% pretty trashed. This article is implying they are significantly worse than normal homes, I can tell you as a fact that is not the case, surprising as it may seem.

By: Yossarian

Yossarian — Fri, 04 Jul 2008 00:23:19 +0000

My cousin the Phx fire chief told me his son was getting a great deal on a home in the downtown Encanto area for 170k or so. Well, it’ll hold its value better than most. After all, it’s downtown, not in an exurb. He may lose big bucks on the house, over time.. as long as he can stay employed, I imagine it’s ok.
What am I saying? He’s nuts, and he’s going to lose money.
Twist, will you post the tax revenue data for Arizona? It shows truly astounding drops … and it shows how fast the economy there is slowing.
No need to try and ‘time the market’ if you want to buy. Real estate markets, when depressed… stay depressed for years, not days or months. Even in the Encanto area.
In Portland, Oregon we still have people completely, totally in denial. I don’t even try anymore. I tell them, ‘go buy the d*** house, just don’t ask me about it!’

By: Bristinwolf

Bristinwolf — Thu, 03 Jul 2008 22:19:29 +0000

I often wonder about my old house in Chandler. I sold it in 2004 to move up to Portland and I got lucky enough to have several investors create a bidding war around it. with the wholesale deflation of the RE market down there I often wonder if I could pick back up the same house for less than I sold it for. :Bonus I know it has not been lived in since I moved

By: Arizzzona

Arizzzona — Thu, 03 Jul 2008 22:05:42 +0000

“There are those who will say that June may mark the beginning of a market “recovery” in Phoenix.”

I guess it depends how we define “recovery.” If it’s soley ‘increased sales,’ then yes, maybe.

But (as others here have stated) if the increase in sales is REO driven then we have a liquidation led market. The “better” QC and Maricopa numbers appear to be a function of properties completing the foreclosure process (and driving down prices as they do).

Given the June NOTs just reported here I imagine there will be an “improving market” (in terms of sales numbers) in many parts of the Valley this fall and winter (barring a credit lock up) together with a continuing decline in sales values. In a way, QC and Maricopa may be leading foreclosure-effect-indicators for the rest of the Valley.

I still can’t believe June NOTs (after 20% attrition) are as high as June total sales. How can the market absorb all thess? Will Valley sales become 100% REO? (Of course, not.) Lower prices HAVE to be on the way. Maybe much lower.

By: azrob

azrob — Thu, 03 Jul 2008 16:39:14 +0000

my count had the following numbers (subject to revisions as agents update)

June 2008 5700 sales. of those sales, 719 were short sales, and 1779 were Bank owned REO properties. My foreclosure watches for Tempe and Scottsdale showed increasing numbers of foreclosures on the mls.

By: foreclosure_expert

foreclosure_expert — Thu, 03 Jul 2008 15:46:25 +0000

The rise in sales seems to be directly affected by the fact that 37.9% of all sales in the Phoenix area are foreclosure-type sales:

http://www.foreclosureexpert.info/2008/07/phoenix-area-sa.html

Here are some detailed foreclosure stats for 10 Phoenix area cities taken directly from the ARMLS:

http://www.foreclosureexpert.info/2008/07/foreclosures-sa.html